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To: GeronL; randita; AuH2ORepublican; yongin; BillyBoy

I wouldn’t worry about that, if you’re going by freepers, many said they hated the GOP and would stay home in 2012 and 2014 and the GOP won the House anyway. The democrats are VERY unlikely to win the House (and unlikely to win the Senate) unless they are winning the Presidency by a good margin. Obama’s margin in 2012 wasn’t nearly enough to give them back the House.

I round down to zero% the chance of a GOP President/Dem House being elected. Picking up the White House and losing a previous majority in the House of Reps is not something that’s happened in modern times, not since 1848, when the Whigs lost the extremely small House majority they had won in 1846 and gained the Presidency by a plurality in a three-way race, that might be the only time it’s happened.

A significant loss of seats is almost unheard of. The dems lost 20+ seats in 1960 with Kennedy “winning” by a slim margin, but that was only because the rats made massive gains in 1958, winning safe GOP seats that they were sure to give back. Republicans lost 40+ seats in 1896 with McKinley (it’s still his mountain AFAIC) winning by a wide margin, same reason as 1960, the Republicans had made MASSIVE gains in 1894. If Dewey had won (a few votes in a few big states would have done it) in ‘48 he’d have seen a massive loss of House seats (and the majority) from 1946, but that’s deceptive, he was only close to winning because the rat vote was split THREE ways with Wallace (commie) and Thurmond (dixiecrat), Wallace and Thurmond voters obviously voted rat for Congress.

Because of gains in 2014 of a few seats tough to win in POTUS years and a liberal state court decision in Florida that could cost us a couple seats, there is likely to be a small net gain for the rats in the House, but they won’t be anywhere near a majority unless it’s a Hillary or Biden landslide.


21 posted on 09/04/2015 10:53:55 AM PDT by Impy (They pull a knife, you pull a gun. That's the CHICAGO WAY, and that's how you beat the rats!)
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To: GeronL; randita; AuH2ORepublican; yongin; BillyBoy

And I wouldn’t presume Trump will or should even be regarded as the favorite to win the nomination.

That he’s leading in Iowa with less than of a quarter of a the vote, in September, doesn’t mean much.


22 posted on 09/04/2015 10:57:27 AM PDT by Impy (They pull a knife, you pull a gun. That's the CHICAGO WAY, and that's how you beat the rats!)
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