Posted on 09/03/2015 9:01:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
After finally surrendering to the reality that Donald Trump is the certifiable leader in the GOP race for president, the "inside the bubble" D.C. pundits have moved on to his inability to win a November 2016 election against Hillary Clinton or some other Democrat. At first blush that seems a reasonable view. After all, the polling they rely on shows Trump with higher negatives than many of the other candidates in the Republican race. "He's too polarizing," say the experts.
The conventional wisdom among most of the D.C. elite is that a Trump nomination would be disaster for a Republican Party that might face a weakened Hillary Clinton, or for that matter, a seemingly vulnerable substitute next November.
And so the whisper among these stale old experts is basically "how do we keep Donald Trump from ruining our chance to actually win an election that seems to be shaping up in our favor?"
Arguing that Trump appeals to a strong but limited base of voters has apparently become their new mantra. But that argument might be just as incorrect as those made earlier this summer when Donald Trump was dismissed as a sideshow of little substance and with no chance of winning the nomination.
After two dismal showings in presidential contests both in '08 and '12 it became conventional wisdom among longtime Republican "experts" to assign the blame for those losses to poor outreach to Latinos and an inability to capture the vote of younger Americans.
And solving these two problems would build a better mousetrap for the nominee in '16?
Perhaps. But there might be a more realistic approach given the fact that younger voters have skewed Democrat for quite some time and Latino voters are actually comprised of many different origins, with differing views on everything from religion to immigration.
What would likely win the Republicans the presidency in 2016 would be a surge of voters who view the current ruling class -- be that a Republican Congress or the Obama presidency -- as out of touch and ineffective.
Recent polls indicate that to be the case.
Elections are about a candidate and his or her backers building their own turnout model on Election Day. That means Republicans must not only convert some otherwise likely Democratic voters. They must also somehow motivate those who usually don't vote to rise up off of their couches and out of their recliners to somehow make an inconvenient trip to their polling place and cast a ballot.
What so many of the pundits seem to be missing in this year's race is that we are a nation where reality television and celebrity lives rule the airwaves and the Internet. For the moment, Trump's position in the polls would have us believe that he would do worse than former Gov. Jeb Bush or other potential nominees in November '16. But in reality, Trump is the best known commodity of the Republicans and his allegedly high "negative" numbers actually fall below the percent of voters who bailed on McCain and Romney in their presidential efforts.
No matter who the GOP nominee is in 2016 it is highly unlikely that he or she will make a huge dent in the African-American vote or the Latino vote. But it is certain that if the nominee can't appeal to "blue collar" voters, or the so-called "middle class," or can't motivate conservatives to vote at record numbers, then the Republican nominee will go down to defeat again.
It could be argued that Trump would fare no worse with black voters than recent nominees because his "tell it like it is" style might actually begin to catch on. And some in the Latino community believe his approach to immigration appeals to many in that community whose family members took the time to enter the country legally.
As for Trump being polarizing, do a Google search with keywords related to "too polarizing" and Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign. The experts were wrong then, too.
Regardless, there are a sea of non-voters who could leap from their couches and vote for a reality star who they view to be real. And that could make Mr. Trump a potent force in a showdown with the Democrats.
Mr. Trump is great for SURPRISES.
WRONG and DEAD wrong, unless of course the Bamster rolls out the government buses for illegals to get to the polls for Hillary.
Or maybe not
Fear is not denial ... fear KNOWS something's out there ...
and it's coming after YOU ...
and you'd better DO something ...
So you put on your freshly lasundered Bravado Suit and strut around saying stupid denial things ...
But YOU know it's still there ...
DON'T you ....
under your bed ...
in your closet ...
In the current environment... Trump might be the only GOPer that can win. He may not be textbook conservative (like Cruz and maybe Walker), but he’s fearless, totally un-PeeCee, has “a pair” (unlike Jeb) and I believe he’s a patriot. He should consider Dr. Ben Carson as Veep. Ted Cruz should be his first SCOTUS appointment. Just sayin’. God bless America!
Hillary for prison 2016, Bernie for nursing home 2016.
There is still a lot of time for things to change but I could live very happily with your scenario.
There is still a lot of time for things to change but I could live very happily with your scenario.
NOTHING wrong here, that’s “higher-up” manipulation, the way THEY wanted. Every night for years you and I were exposed to same manipulation by FAUX 6PM, from rotating panels of Beltway breeders totally out of touch Karl Rove “manipulator/assassinators.” I’m glad I finally figure it out on their fiasco debate night and haven’t tuned in to FAUX since that night!!!
The writer is correct. I remember the media all proclaiming Reagan as too polarizing, too conservative, etc.. He’s a dried up not-so-great actor, etc. never mentioned his accomplishments at all.
The citizens are thoroughly disgusted with current politics and the Washington DC elite attitude. Donald Trump could easily end up with a landslide. All he needs to do is keep strong in his basic instincts about the issues, and modify a bit his look of anger. That is a bit offsetting, but can be corrected.
In the end Donald merely needs to be seen as a bit likeable - so modify the image a bit and he can win BIG.
Now, whydoes Washington believe their annointed candidate (Bushie) would actually win?
Ford = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser.
Bush I = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser.
Dole = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser.
Bush II = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser (750 votes in Florida ain’t exactly a “winning” election! )
McCain = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser.
Romney = GROPe chosen Insider, GROPe Loser.
So, why should we believe these GROPe insiders and writers? When have they been right before?
We have to hope that a Trump can overcome the likely millions of new citizens who will be freshly minted next year for the Election and the massive and heavy handed federally enforced vote fraud that must occur. I think only Trump among those visible now can do it. Will he? The history of the Man on Horseback who appears in the times of chaos and dissolution of great nations is not a cause for optimism. Trump appears to be that Man on Horseback. Napoleon was such a one. So was one Schickelgruber. So was Octavian.
“too polarizing” Hah! Democrats are entirely polarizing. They expect Republicans to be moderate, that way they will lose. Anyone with convictions is going to be polarizing.
The pollsters seem to think Hillary is a lock for the nomination. Do they ever poll Trump or the other GOP candidates against Sanders, O’malley or Biden?.................
Octavian was a good guy. Nappy and Schickey, not so much..................
All three brought a few years of glory to their societies. None were good for Returning republican structures. Octavian, at least, didn’t crash the Empire.
I sincerely believe that even beyond turning out the Republican base in much greater numbers, Trump has the potential to cut into the traditional Democratic constituencies (black, Hispanic, young, urban). He’s the quintessence of urban — a lifelong New Yorker, born and raised in Queens, living in Manhattan. How people would think that a man who is a “ratings machine” on reality TV and rules social media has no chance to connect to younger voters, I don’t know, but they’re clearly wrong. With blacks, the typical GOP candidate hasn’t ever even been around very many black people, and blacks can sense that from a mile way; Trump has been around blacks all of his life, he knows us. Furthermore, blacks most of all want jobs; Trump can credibly say that he knows how to provide them.
Admittedly, at this point, Hispanics are going to be a tough nut to crack; their entire leadership structure is heavily invested in tagging him as a “xenophobe” and “nativist”, (i.e. “racist) in order to protect their precious illegal alien racket, which he threatens to destroy. But even so, like blacks, for rank-and-file Hispanics of every type, jobs are the number one issue, not immigration. To the extent that he can speak to those who do know English, rather than through the filter of their media/leaders, the message will sink in.
In addition, as Trump noted, he could probably win without a ton of Hispanic support. The vast majority, especially of the non-English speaking, non-Cuban variety that is most heavily invested in the illegal alien issue, are concentrated in states that are not in play — California, New York, Illinois, Texas. This election as with all recent elections will be won or lost in the Midwest minus Illinois — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan. Hispanics are a small fraction of those states.
IIRC, Octavian tried to bring back morality and good citizenship to the Roman Republic, which was falling into a profligate debauched society..............much like the USA today..........
The race has just started and I don’t believe Hillary will be the nominee of the Progressives. She is just too toxic. Trump is slowing rising in the national polls. His negatives are going down. America—so it seems—loves his brash ways—because he looks like a leader who will not take anything.
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