Posted on 08/31/2015 12:49:02 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat
The GOPe Road Map is contingent upon all 10 candidates that are part of Team Jeb remaining in the race until various points within the primary. Nine of the candidates are party insiders recruited to act as early primary state splitters (Gilmore -VA, Pataki -NY, Graham -SC, Perry -TX, Kasich -OH, Rubio -FL, Huckabee -AR, Fiorina and Christie).
GOP candidates mashup
This allows the Road Map to succeed with 15 to 20% support for Jeb – depending on primary state location. However, when the plan was constructed it’s obvious they never anticipated a Donald Trump candidacy.
The original plan was created to defeat Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Scott Walker (Donald Trump was never factored into the strategy). Current polling shows their strategy would be factually successful were it not for Donald Trump.
As a consequence removal of Trump was/is a priority; but everything they’ve tried to take Trump down has failed – and Jeb’s polling numbers (around 10% or lower) are now nearing the point of no return.
As much as the RNC/GOPe would like to take Trump out, it is now obvious from within the GOPe party apparatus, via their establishment media network, they are increasingly recognizing they just can’t take him down.
Ben carsonAs an outcome of accepting this reality, it appears a new plan is in the works to promote an alternative and attempt to split Trump’s coalition. The most obvious candidate to do this is Ben Carson (next would be Carly Fiorina).
There are numerous signals now becoming visible that Team Jeb (RNC/GOPe) is working to talk up Carson.
Dana Perino, a die-hard Bush loyalist, has been working this angle for several weeks. Fox news host Megyn Kelly has also been working diligently to promote Carson as a kinder, gentler and more palatable, ie. less vulgarian, option.
Watch the reports and the news cycles closely in the lead up to the next debate September 16th and we will most likely see strong signals of this strategy. The promotion of Carson will specifically target Trump supporters – it’s doubtful the strategy could work, but depending on the primary state it might be enough to pull Trump down enough to stop the current momentum.
I agree. And yes it makes sense for Jeb to "push Carson" as he'd mostly be taking votes from "anti-establishment" Trump and conservative candidates like Cruz and Walker. This changes my opinion of Carson not one whit, I find him a superior choice to Trump though not to Walker or Cruz.
However, as I've pointed out I conclude that most of the candidates named in the blog post as being part of "team Jeb" (Carson not among them) take more support from Jeb than from anyone else. Huckabee being the main exception as his supporters are mostly social conservatives. You can't tell me neocon Lindsay Graham doesn't cripple Bush's chances in SC, that Kasich isn't sucking up RINO support he thought was in his pocket, that Rubio isn't costing him an easy win in their mutual home state.
Furthermore I've seen not no evidence that any of them are part of "team Jeb", just a conspiracy theory. And in my view amble evidence exists that these people are undertaking the arduous task of running for President (and in Rubio's case, giving up his job, and he's the one guy who can't be given a VP slot by Bush as Florida electors could not vote for both of them) for their own reasons, namely their own naked ambition for the office, the stench of which is obvious to my nose, or some ulterior personal motive (maybe Gilmore thinks a White House bid will lead to cabinet post or boost his profile for another Senate bid) I assure you, the likes of Graham and Christie are running because they want to be President, and are deluded enough to think they can be.
Indeed, mass incompetence and high-level Machiavellian scheming don’t go hand in hand. The bogeyman takes on whatever characteristics are needed for any given argument, I guess they don’t see the logical incongruity.
I would say Bush, Kaisch, Graham, Christie, Pataki and Gilmore (those last 2 have negligible support and I don’t see them lasting very long) largely draw from the same voter base.
Rubio I think hurts Jeb in Florida but also takes votes from Cruz and Walker.
Jindal backers, all 6 of them (I’d put #3 on my list but appears to have no chance) would go with Walker or Cruz I would wager.
Fiorina is an odd duck, she’s an establishment figure, moderate-conservative type though a non-politician (though only because he lost her Senate race) who has some outsider appeal as well. So she could be drawing from many, including Trump.
Huckabee, I mislike him but he’s a solid social conservative, he’s taking votes from Cruz/Walker/Carson. He’s cancer as far as Iowa is concerned.
No idea about ole’ Rick Perry, but it’s hard for him to get inside the head of Perry backer, if there are even any left. I forget he’s running most of the time.
Paul supporters are Paul supporters, he’ll stay in till the end if he’s able, just like his daddy.
The outsider Carson may be the one who would give up more supporters to Trump than any of the other “weaker” candidates (though he’s currently polling over Cruz and Walker in Iowa I’m not sure that will last, I certainly think those other 2 fellows are likelier to go further in this race than he). Carson has the lowest unfavorably, most Republicans like him or few hate him.
Many Cruz supporters like Trump, though oddly some of them suggest putting Cruz as his VP despite Cruz’s overall superiority in every way save skill with bombast. In any case, I think Trump is more likely to exit the race than Cruz is, though my initial view that Trump was just goofing off and likely to bail out seems off base at this point.
I’d be very interested to see a “2nd choice” poll for all of the candidates to let me know if I’m on the mark or not.
I don’t see Trump being a popular 2nd choice, seems to me either people either love him or they don’t.
carson speaks softly like a gentle soul. as a doctor, he can speak with authority about abortion as we get a planned parenthood video every week.
Trump seems to be hitting about 25-30% in most polls, although there are some outliers where he is a bit higher or lower.
That means that, as of now, 70% or more do not prefer him as their first choice. No one can make the claim that voters need more information to make a decision about him. If they don’t know who is he by now, they live under a rock.
I have a hunch the DT surge has subsided. Maybe he’s not wearing well with all the media coverage he’s getting.
When the field is whittled down to one or two candidates besides DT, it’s likely at least one of those two could top him if he’s stalled at 30%.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.