Giuliani was polling 38%, with Fred Thompson far behind at 18%, followed by Romney and then McCain in August 2007. Guess who ended up winning the nomination? McCain. Even more remarkable, McCain’s campaign was broke at the time and Romney had far more money than McCain and could self finance an extent. He still ended up losing to McCain.
You are assuming that polls in August = polls in January and actual voting in February and March. That is often not the case.
I think your thoughts on that are interesting. I don’t normally disagree with that line of reasoning. I do here, and that may not be wise.
I will say that I don’t see Trump as your normal case, but heck, who knows.
I have predicted he will win the nomination and the presidency.
To me, it seems very unlikely that he will implode, that anyone else isn’t already known well enough to take off if they were going to.
I expect to see his numbers continue to grow. I also expect it to become obvious that he will kick any Democrat’s posterior by a wide margin.
Let me float this out there.
Let’s say Trump implodes.
We have Democrats, Moderate Republicans, and Conservatives voting in the primaries.
We are only a percentage of the Republican part. You have Democrat and Moderate Republicans voting against us. How can Cruz or another Conservative win?
We haven’t had a Conservative nominee since Reagan.
There have been seven general elections. Why do you think a Conservative can win the nomination when if anything, the Party has moved far left since 1984?
Who is your choice? How can they win? What’s your tactic going to be when a RINO gets the nomination, and it’s Hillary, Joe, or Bernie in November against the GOPe selectee?