“Go back 20 to 25 years. Inflate the DOW at 5or 6% per year straight line. The DOW is not too high..... unless you believe there is a cap that it can never go over?”
I believe that if we were getting returns based on real results that would be true. If we are getting market results based on fed intervention and actually entering a deflationary environment it will rip your face off.
Commodity prices like copper are not suggesting 5-6% real growth, or anything like it.
A commodity prices are driven by supply and demand, costs to produce, technology advancements etc etc. I’m just saying, if someone told you the stock market would average 5 to 6% growth over time, most people would accept that as a okay, not-particularly-scary, number.
When I first started driving gas was about 50cents per gallon. $2.50ish now? You know... that’s 5 to 6% increase over time.