So Cruz’s view is different. He believes, as Reagan did (and Reagan was right...back then) that there are plenty of Dems., independents and sort of marginally involved citizens who will come out and vote for a bold pro-America, pro-freedom candidate. Gun-owning union members, anti-Communist Democrats, etc., pro-life Democrats, etc. This is what Reagan pulled off.
The problem with the “let’s not scare the beloved independent” line of analysis, and, with the “there are hidden conservatives out there” is that these are both essentially empirical questions, to which there is a FACTUAL answer. These are not matters of opinion. Either there is a block of fearful independents who want to vote GOP but are frightened by the true conservaties, or not.
Personally, I happen to think that is not the case, as all of us here do as well. We can point to the track record of moderates in losing elections. However, I also acknowledge that is an interpretation of less-than-complete data. It’s speculation as to the meaning of speculative and incomplete data.
With regards to the Reagan and now Cruz premise...well my fear is that no matter how much I want that to be true, I fear that the numbers actually (for real, empirically) are just not there.
So I am worried that Cruz is hoping for something...as we all are...that just isn’t true anymore.
But...since that is a question of fact, I acknowledge that I could be wrong. And I sure hope so.
What we do know is that Cruz will get any hidden conservatives that are out there. If there are enough, he will win.
(Of course one final caveat. I don’t guess I really believe that we have fair elections anymore...I think that 5 or 6 big cities are completely corrupt, and that is all it takes to swing a national election).
So ...net net net. What do we do?
Nominate Cruz. Win or lose, at least we will be articulating a vision of America that is deeply true and thus will give us a bit of hope and something to work towards when teh country truly hits rock bottom and we have to have a hard re-boot.
Nominate Cruz.
Before doing that, don’t you think it would be wise to at least see how he performs in the primaries...?
As I've argued here for a couple of months, we have seen a sea change in the political process. It's NOT about ideology (mainly) anymore. It's about celebrity.
This is why I think Trump absolutely understands how to ride this wave. It's incredible: he has TEN TIMES the Twitter followers of Bush, more than the next six candidates put together. He ADDS more followers in a week than Bush (or Cruz) even has.
Trump, the richest guy in the race, has so far managed to run a national campaign in which he leads for more than two months and has spent nary a dime of his own money. He's done it all with social media, expanded out to national media coverage. He dominates broadcast, radio, Twitter, FB, and so on. In short, his appeal to people who never vote or wouldn't consider voting---like Obama's in 08---is of geometrically higher proportions than any other candidate.
That's why I think (and so far, evidence from "the street" seems to back me up) that harping on how Trump "isn't conservative" on this or that issue are utterly meaningless. He's on a whole different field, and traditional conservatives are left in the dust.