the energy/ag comparison is fascinating.
In the real world, do ag exports ever cause prices for the consumer to go up?
Probably not...
If there were long term export contracts to supply at a fixed price and the domestic supply diminished, the domestic price would rise while the export quantity and price was the seme
Take the comparison farther.
If we banned the export of wheat, what would happen to our wheat production?
Farmers could not afford to produce more than could be used domestically. They would drastically cut production.
In just a few years, we would be importing wheat as the farmers would need to make sure each year their production stayed under domestic demand.
Ethanol causes perturbations in both food and fuel pricing.
You don’t see it because Ag is subsidized heavily.