Posted on 08/01/2015 3:36:14 AM PDT by BigEdLB
That is absolutely not true. Lincoln did not "attack" slavery and was himself a racist to nth degree. He said the war was not about slavery man many times. He only did the EO on slavery to try an start a race riot and to make easier to draft black canon fodder.
“And yet the GOPe would have us nominate a candidate 90% of the Iowa Republicans are against! In fact, they look at us like we are nuts when we suggest someone else!”
You gave me an idea to sort the candidates by the following:
1) Those either campaigning as a liberal, or otherwise clear that he would be a liberal in office.
2) Those campaigning as a conservative and having some legitimacy in that claim (varying degrees of legitimacy, but with their voters believing they are conservative).
In the first category (liberal) are the following:
Bush, 10.0%
Graham, 1.0%
Christie, <1.0%
Pataki, <1.0%
Total: 12%, and pretty much all going for Jeb
In the second category (conservative) are the following:
Trump, 30.9%
Walker, 15.4%
Jindal, 7.2%
Huckabee, 6.0%
Cruz, 5.5%
Carson, 5.1%
Kasich, 5.0%
Fiorina, 4.3%
Santorum, 2.9%
Rubio, 2.8%
Perry, 1.7%
Paul, <1.0%
Total: 87%
The party is pushing Jeb, who represents 12% of those surveyed. Explains a lot of the anger here.
“These other candidates are soon going to be forced to take off the gloves vs Trump.”
You’re probably right, and that’s what the primaries are for - to vet candidates. The problem for Republicans is that they do a much better job attacking each other than they ever do attacking the real opposition in the other party. Trump has been one exception to that, and that he is using a no punches pulled approach to Hillary and the other opposition is exactly why he’s being successful right now. The others still don’t seem to get that though, or maybe don’t want to.
“The problem I see is his electability. Can he actually win a national election?”
The reason that people like Trump (and Reagan, for that matter) often look unelectable a year out is because they are busy locking down the base. After they lock up the base, they can start pulling in people from the center. Reagan (sadly) did that by promising a woman on the Supreme Court (Sandra Dee). Trump will do something similar (hopefully not pander like Reagan did with Sandra Dee) and his numbers will climb at that point. Clinton did the same with Sister Soldier and promising a “Middle Class Tax Cut”, and Obama did similar by more or less promising us that he would get Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson to shut their traps (i.e., end racial bickering).
The opposite also applies. You nominate someone that has not locked up the base and you have a TOTAL MESS to deal with late in the game. McCain is the best example - the ideal moderate, brings people together, perfect for a HUGE WIN on election night. Only problem was they found out the base was not about to support him...so they had to run out and find Palin to use as a Hail Mary - the media was able to DESTROY McCain and all the moderation that he stood for went out the door (not a swipe at Palin here, just a fact). In 1992, Bush Sr. was in a similar situation and had to allow Pat Buchanan have a prime-time speaking role at the convention. In one speech all the moderation that Bush had cultivated by caving to the left on virtually everything was down the drain and the left simply called him an EXTREMIST because of a speech that he did not even make.
It is FAR BETTER to nominate someone that has locked down the base, and can then move a bit towards the center late in the game...and it has been proven over and over again, by both parties. So don’t worry about Trump in the general election - if he stays solid conservative through the Primary process and continues to treat his supporters with respect, he’ll be fine in the general election.
The problem is these little wussies with the exception of Cruz have no clue how to fight. That’s whats wrong with the republican party in general.
The other candidates will not take out Trump. IMO the way Trump can lose is if he strays into the weeds too badly. And that would be his fault so I would have no sympathy.
The 2016 GOP nomination is Trump’s to lose.
If Trump was a weapon system he would get A’s in fire power and sustained rate of fire. He would get F’s in fire control and accuracy.
“Cruz has the cleanest conservative past, but has been hampered somewhat with his support for greatly increasing H1B’s. Overall, he’s still hanging in there and if Trump tanks, or (more likely) needs a running mate, Cruz may be perfect for that.”
Thanks for your well thought out analysis.
I love Cruz on a lot of levels, but you are absolutely right about him being hampered by his ridiculous support for greatly increasing H1Bs. I just cannot wholeheartedly support him because of this. This really is a huge issue economically, jobs, culturally and more. What in the world is he thinking here?? Good grief!
Trump, 30.9 percent Walker, 15.4 percent Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 10 percent Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, 7.2 percent Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 6 percent Texas Sen.Ted Cruz, 5.5 percent [others 100- 75.0 = 25%]with a margin of error of 1/sqrt(227) = 6.6%, you can only say that (IF the survey is properly randomized and free of egregious bias) there is a 95% probability that
Trump is between 24 and 37% Walker, 9 - 22% Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 - 16% Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, 1 - 13% Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 0 - 12% Texas Sen.Ted Cruz, 0 - 12%so the main point still holds.
Speaking off issues, do people still watch "Rocky" because he was good on all the issues or because he was a fighter?
So what did he mean when he said in his Phoenix speech: "Sorry conservatives. We have to take care of everybody"?
The context of the comment, by the way, was his continued support for single-payer socialized medicine.
If that ain't statist, nothing is.
All the talking heads and the consultants and the candidates, except Trump, are avoiding the immigration issue, or talking amnesty. Trump is taking the issue on. He nows owns it.
He is now 30% plus in Iowa. When will the elites wake up? When he is 40%? After he wins Iowa AND New Hampshire?
These are just registered Republicans. What are likely primary voters polling?
Serves all the other candidates right, for tip-toeing around the issue of the alien invasion—which has been an ongoing act of war against the U.S.—ongoing since 1965.That's just it, they aren't tip-toeing around it. They're trying to ram acceptance down our throats. Then making illegals a protected class and then calling us names for not going along.
"Sorry conservatives. We have to take care of everybody"?You have that in quotes. Do you have a link to the exact quote so it can be put in context?
I love Cruz on a lot of levels, but you are absolutely right about him being hampered by his ridiculous support for greatly increasing H1Bs. I just cannot wholeheartedly support him because of this. This really is a huge issue economically, jobs, culturally and more. What in the world is he thinking here?? Good grief!It's not just H1b's but the expansion of issuing green cards AKA amnesty with benefits.
Good point...The RNC may be more liberal than the DNC...
Iowa has a caucus. Registered republicans only
I disagree with that...Trump has the targets in his sights and is hitting the bulls eye every time...
The rest of them can't ( don't dare) tell us why it's good for America to invite in millions of illegals and muslim terrorists yet they are on that bandwagon...
Talk about missing the target, they are even aiming at it...
That's only common sense...No one is going to allow people to lie outside the hospitals and die because we (the U.S.A.) wouldn't take care of them...Unless you are running the VA hospitals...And Trumps says he is going to 'fire' those managers as well, which I agree with...
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