Apple has been lowballing expectations since 2000 or so...
if they don’t have a huge beat, they usually take a dive, and it does not happen often.
This is the reason why I did not take the risk to buy puts. I left some on the table, but I did not lose anything either.
You need to see Apple as a trade as well as a investment and that is hard for anyone to do.
Happens all the time with other techs, but not so frequently with Apple since 2013..
You need to check Apple history in the past four years. You're out of date. . . But then you said you don't follow it. Apple has been pretty spot on. They are guiding conservative now because of the China situation and really cannot guess what's happening there. No one can.