Posted on 07/24/2015 11:46:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.
Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.
In fact, both Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 faded more down the stretch than these numbers suggest. Perot polled at an amazingly high 39 percent in summer 1992 (that was before he dropped out and then re-entered the race). Wallace reached the low 20s in late September 1968 and then dropped steadily as Election Day approached.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Kasich’s wedding was years ago.
Absolutely not a snark. I meant exactly what I said but maybe my intent was not clear. The ‘hillary fans’ I was referring to are those making the blanket statement that Trump loses a third party run. Between Trump, Bush, and Clinton, I would enthusiasticly campaign and vote for Trump. I would also say that if that happened (also if Trump wins R nom), Cruz may be his VP and then it’s a whole new ball game.
Sorry for the confusion.
Surveys said about 68-72/733%
It also very definitely hurt Bush in other ways too. Fundraising and voter enthusiasm were the big problems.
More than the popular vote, it was the states it cost Bush:
Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio, Maine, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana. and others. All would have gone Bush had it not been Perot.
Bottom line: No Perot = No Clinton Presidency
No Clinton Presidency = No Hillary
and No Hillary, no others Dems thinking she was a shoe in, so they didn’t run, or at least seriously run in 2008, thereby leaving it wide open for an unknown asshole from Illinois to run as the Anti-Hillary
Bottom line, No Perot, maybe even no Obama. Certainly, post-Bust 43, we probably would have had a Dem, but not the radical anti-American Obama is.
Always a first time. We had never seen an established party, the Whigs, disappear either to be replaced by a third party, the Republicans, til it happened.
The only way Trump goes 3rd Party is if he has the votes and percentages but is screwed out of the nomination by some backroom deal at the convention.
At THAT point he’d be JUSTIFIED in going rogue. And in such a scenario, why wouldn’t his supporters follow him? I darn sure would follow him.
Trump WILL win, the Republicans can either be with him, or against him. He’s getting stronger every week; by election time, if Trump runs 3rd party, he’ll take 50% of the total vote, even as a third party.
“Duh. And Duh.
Has any one running in a third party bid NOT lost badly?
And has the Republican Party also not been taken down too?”
Trump is NOT just anyone.
Take your history book and throw it out. Trump is a unique animal. Trump is not Perot, (or John Anderson for those who remember.) If Reagan ran as a third party, (with unlimited money,) VS Carter and Bush 1, who would win?
If Reagan had unlimited money, and knew how to dominate the press like Trump, would he have needed the Republican Party apparatus to win?
Bottom line: If the GOPe push Trump out of the Republican Party, and nominate ANOTHER moderate, (Bush 1, Dole, Bush 2, Mccain, Romney...) Trump will defeat both parties.
Trump would only gain a small portion of GOP voters. However, he would ensure the election of his friend Hillary Clinton.
Trump also isn’t Reagan... not anywhere close. Reagan had far more appeal than Trump can muster.
Always a first time. We had never seen an established party, the Whigs, disappear either to be replaced by a third party, the Republicans, til it happened.
Your Freep page says you write science fiction.
You sure do, pal. You sure do.
Oh, I’m with ya there.. if Trump goes indie, there’ll definitely be a landslide all right.
Trump can’t win if people don’t vote for him...If it’s Bush or one of the other yahoos, I’ll vote 3rd party, for Trump...
Hasn't it always??? Kennedy won because the women liked the way he looked...
Enjoy the show.
It's a LOT better show with Trump in it...
That's ridiculous...Bush lost because many of the people couldn't stand the thought of him being President again...It's Bush's fault Bush lost...
You seem to think that had Perot not run, we'd have been forced to vote for Bush...NOT...
No kiddin’! It was a handoff.
And who gets the blame??? The GOP...With Trump running a 3rd Party, why would any Republican vote for someone else knowing it's a Hillary win if they do???
No, no one would have been forced to do anything, but exit polls of Perot voters showed 68 to 73% would have voted for Bush had Perot not run.
Do some homework. Take 68-73% of the Perot vote in the states I mentioned, ones Clinton won by small margins, and add them to the Bush numbers. Give the other 27-32% to Clinton and “recount” the totals.
Bush would have won reelection handily, and there would be no Hillary.
Likewise, had Bush not gone back on “Read My Lips...” he would might possibly have won, but the history... and the math... is very clear; Perot assured Clinton’s election.
Ross Perot is no God.
No Perot in ‘72 = No Clinton.
No Clinton victory in ‘72 = no Hillary today.
I completely agree!
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