Posted on 07/22/2015 10:22:23 AM PDT by smoothsailing
July 22, 2015
By Dylan Byers
Somewhere in a parallel universe, top-ranking Republican presidential candidates Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio are gearing up for an inaugural primary debate where they will make their pitches to voters, contest one another’s policy proposals, and calmly try to skirt attacks from tea party insurgents and nothing-to-lose outsiders.
Unfortunately for them, this is not that universe. This is Donald Trump’s universe.
So instead, on Aug. 6, in Cleveland, the GOP hopefuls will appear stage right and stage left, flanking a real estate mogul and reality television star who is all but certain to steal the spotlight, go on the offensive and thwart their hopes for a peaceful debate.
Trump’s presence at center stage — his reward if he maintains his lead in the polls — is likely to transform the first Republican debate into a major media event, bringing big ratings to Fox News, the debate sponsor. By the same token, however, it will likely turn the traditionally policy-focused event into a pageant of personality, which is a potential nightmare for other candidates.
“I think you have to assume he’ll be loud and aggressive and do everything he can to stay on offense,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who gave the most commanding debate performances of the 2012 primary cycle, told POLITICO. “Trump is very smart, he has lots of TV experience and is absolutely uninhibited.”
Considered almost unthinkable just five weeks ago, Trump’s appearance at center stage is now the most inconvenient of truths for the would-be Republican front-runners. From Madison to Miami, campaign aides are already wrestling with the Trump factor — strategizing on how to engage with him (if at all) and how to stave off his attacks.
“He might be the only person on that stage with nothing to lose,” said one senior Republican campaign adviser, “and he isn’t going down alone.”
At the same time, candidates will be eager to ensure that they aren’t just playing bit parts in a two-hour Donald Trump show. That will be especially challenging given the feverish media attention surrounding the notoriously braggadocious front-runner.
“Unless everything changes in the next two weeks, which is always a possibility, I imagine Trump will be pretty much the top five stories of the debate just by showing up,” said Mark Leibovich, the chief national correspondent for The New York Times Magazine.
“There’s the ‘Will the other candidates attack Trump?’ story, the ‘Will Trump hold his own as a serious candidate?’ story, the ‘Will Trump have a grasp of the issues?’ story, the ‘What attention-getting thing did Trump say?’ story and the “Did you hear what Trump said about Candidate X?’ (or ‘What did Candidate X say to Trump?’) story, etc,” he continued. “Maybe someone like Jeb can sneak into the top six.”
Trump’s influence on the debate isn’t just a headache for candidates, it’s a headache for the Republican National Committee, which had sought to gain greater control over the debate process after the chaos of the 2012 cycle. Despite the party’s effort to distance itself from Trump’s litany of controversial comments, there’s nothing it can do to prevent his appearance on stage in Cleveland. Given his current standing atop the GOP pack, he would have to shed almost all of his supporters over the next week to fall out of the top 10.
But the real challenge rests with the candidates. The stakes are particularly high for Bush, who has been the target of much of Trump’s verbal assault over the past month. How Bush responds — or doesn’t — could determine how conservative voters who have been skeptical of his candidacy view him. Other candidates, meanwhile, are hoping that Trump-Bush skirmishes leave the Floridian bloodied.
For Bush and other top-tier candidates like Walker and Rubio, anticipating Trump’s approach to the debate is of paramount importance.
Perhaps no one is better suited to offer advice on the subject than Gingrich, who surged to the front of the 2012 GOP field — twice — in large part because of his dramatic performances at the debates. Indeed, Gingrich saved his campaign from ruin by attacking a debate moderator who dared to ask for his reaction to the negative press reports that were commanding the day’s headlines. CNN’s David Gergen called it “one of the most explosive moments … in debate history.”
For Gingrich, taking on Trump is a matter of understanding the enemy: “Avoid anger, because I don’t think anybody on that stage can out-anger Trump,” he said. “His natural style is aggressive. It’s not like he has to become aggressive. He wakes up and he’s aggressive.”
Trump might be more susceptible to humor, the former speaker offered: “If you remember, Reagan used ‘There you go again’ with Jimmy Carter to enormous effect. He used ‘My opponent’s youth and inexperience’ with Mondale to great effect,” Gingrich said, referencing two of Ronald Reagan’s most famous quips. “Something closer to Reagan-esque humor could be very formidable.”
But the best strategy, Gingrich added, is to ignore Trump altogether — at least, to the degree that that’s possible.
“Candidates ought to focus on communicating with the American people, not focusing on Donald Trump,” he said. “The candidates who do the best will be the candidates who talk most directly to the American people, rather than getting sucked into fighting with Trump.”
Steven Shepard contributed to this report.
You betcha, it is Trump’s show. And I bet it will have the highest ratings and viewship of any presidential debate. Get the popcorn out and watch the fun as he takes potshots from the host and fell wanna be candidates.
Sounds good!
It will be if the rest of the candidates do the usual safe, say-nothing, promise a lot of vague stuff, and talk as if the Democrats are just the guys playing from the other end of the field.
Be bold.
Say things that we can sink our teeth into.
Give us specifics (i.e. “if I’m your president, I’ll bring jobs back to the US”. Oh yeah? HOW???)
And most of all, remind everyone that the Democrats are the party of racial strife, dead babies, lost wars, high prices, electric cars, and vegan bacon!!
Yeah, play the bacon card.
Yep. It’s Trump’s world. The Rinos are just living in it.
All Trump has to do is answer the questions…he does not have to attack in the debate…he needs to get out his message..what he will do…he can sound a lot like Reagan from reading his book…Economy and taxes…and free and fair trade
THIS will be good
and good for America
I'll wager a bag of popcorn Trump makes SOME kind of statement about he uses no notes or teleprompter or whatever .... like THESE guys ....
Just another Trump reality show.
“The Apprentice” had a pretty good run, and “You’re fired!” became sort of a catchword.
Great show, but it is still Kabuki theater.
I think Cruz is much sounder on Constitutional philosophy and knowledge, much sounder on just about everything than Trump. However he lacks one quality that will be required to win this thing, getting the voters’ attention. Trump has that. If Trump can address the importation of Moslems into the country with the same energy as he talks about the wetbacks he will probably carry the day.
It will be a mauling, though not so much on Cruz (I think they are pals)
“traditionally policy-focused event”
LOL!
Traditionally it’s a media enforcement event for their memes and narratives.
From what I’ve seen, Trump has a better grasp of the issues than the others.
For one, Trump has correctly identified the most important issues for the country. He’s the only candidate that demonstrates he understands our international trade policies are causing our high unemployment. And illegal immigration isn’t helping.
I agree, totally. Cruz is head and shoulders above Trump. But Trump has brought the vital issue of illegal criminality to the forefront, so for that I am grateful.
“Great show, but it is still Kabuki theater.”
And Reagan was a B-movie actor... zzzz..
The press and RNC may think this is some kind of stage play, where politics as usual reigns, but not this time.
Donald Trump doesn’t think this is a damn show, he thinks it’s a damn fight (a take from a Rocky movie).
This will not be ‘The Apprentice’ my friends.
Trump has to watch out for being SNL'd after his debate appearance. SNL killed it for Gore, just like they did for Dukakis. They learned their lesson after Gore, and now go easy on the Democrats.
Darrell Hammond is just waiting to bring his Trump back. Trump will have to be controlled and watch his mannerisms. This means avoiding excessive use of superlatives like "huge" and "tremendous," or he will be Palinized. He should be matter-of-fact, but confident and knowledgeable.
But most of all, he should be respectful of the debate rules and other candidates' time, unless the others keep stepping on him. Even then, he should be on the lookout for collusion amongst the candidates to try to entrap Trump into an ugly unguarded moment. They want nothing more than to force an angry moment where they can hammer Trump with questions like "is he out of control?" or "how would President Trump behave with Putin?" or "can Trump get along with Congress?"
He has to watch out for the caricature. To counter it, he has to show control, command, and breadth of knowledge.
-PJ
“Will GOP debate be the Trump show?”
That thing is going to break all sort of rating records. Trump will have another hit show.
“Donald Trump doesn’t think this is a damn show, he thinks it’s a damn fight (a take from a Rocky movie).”
DT gets up every morning and fights like he’s 20 points down.
And, IMHO, he has one thing that NONE of the other candidates in either party has....Wisdom.
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