Since it is personal to you, I’ll post my theory to you.
I learned from reports yesterday that there is construction in process at the prison and lots of noise. the construction noise masked the noise of cutting the perfectly square opening in the 1/4” thick steel escape pipe.
A guard much earlier accessed the utility corridor/catwalk and ran electrical cords into the cell(s) to permit cooking.
Conclusion:
There was widely available access to the utility corridor and the escape pipe. A skilled craftsman with a tape measure, square, and side grinder cut the near perfect opening in the 1/4” steel pipe. The skilled craftsman was not the escapees but someone paid to do the job.
The brains of the escape is still at large and as intended, heading toward Canada
Your theory makes sense. I couldn’t figure out how they knew where to go once through the wall, but they made it to freedom right under the guards’ noses. I am sure that dipsy broad couldn’t have planned it.