I think the only ones that matter are Bush, Walker, Rubio, Cruz, Huck, Santorum and Paul. Minor roles to Perry & Fiorina, Kasich and Jindal if they run. The winner comes from the first list, with potentially a solid 6-15 percent sticking with each candidate down to the wire. The rest potentially split the vote, with Huck and Santorum peeling off potential Cruz votes, and Fiorina capturing some fire with her awesome rhetoric and quick mind. The rest of the also-rans will either bow out or fizzle out before it matters.
Dear Mr. Bush,
Your support for common core, the “acts of love” and governing like LBJ prohibit me from voting for you in good conscience.
3 strikes you’re out!
I would not include Huck or Santorum on the list. Neither has a chance of getting the nomination or even a VP pick.
The rest of the names on your list all have either enough money (Bush) or enough grass roots support (Walker, Rubio, Cruz and Paul), to hang in at least until the first actual primary vote in February 2016.
Of course, that could change if any of them really fail in the debates (Perry in 2008).