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ISIS Could Win. Here's What that Means
RealClearWorld ^ | June 9, 2015 | Ronald Tiersky

Posted on 06/09/2015 2:26:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The feeling is growing in the international commentariat that the Islamic State may win: That the group will continue to gain territory in Syria and Iraq and will consolidate a permanent government, a state ensconced in the Islamic caliphate its leadership has proclaimed. I ended a recent article on a note of bravado, writing that in spite of its successes on the battlefield and elsewhere, it remains all but certain that Islamic State will ultimately be ground up and destroyed. Today I am less certain, and I have started to imagine what would happen if ISIS actually prevails.

I am reconsidering for a simple reason: U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter's contention that the Iraqi government's military forces show "no will to fight." In a June 1 editorial titled "Who's willing to fight for Iraq?" the New York Times suggested that if Baghdad's military is unwilling or unable to defeat ISIS - if it is outgunned, out-organized, out-strategized and, one must add, terrorized by ISIS savagery - outsiders should stay out. No boots on the ground, no escalation of air strikes; let us limit wasted resources.

What would result from an ISIS victory? First, an official Sunni Muslim state would be consolidated, straddling the post-World War I Sykes-Picot Syria-Iraq border whose very existence exemplifies for the Islamic State how Middle Eastern geopolitics was unilaterally rearranged by European powers. The battlefield would decide exactly how much of Syria and how much of Iraq would fall under the state's control. In Iraq, the Islamic State would incorporate all Arab Sunni areas, beginning with Anbar, the largest Iraqi province. Kurdistan would be left alone, at least for the time being. The Peshmerga army, beefed up by the United States and highly motivated because the Kurdish fighters are defending their own territory...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Egypt; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; Politics/Elections; Russia; Syria; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: egypt; iran; iraq; isil; isis; isisiraq; islam; israel; jordan; lebanon; paultardation; paultardnoisemachine; randpaulnoisemachine; randsconcerntrolls; russia; syria; waronterror
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And Rand Paul will blame which party?
1 posted on 06/09/2015 2:26:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

obama and his crowd will pop the champaign corks


2 posted on 06/09/2015 2:28:05 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Do what is Right ... It causes liberal heads to explode!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dunno. What party is in charge in Israel right now?


3 posted on 06/09/2015 2:34:41 PM PDT by piytar (Good will be called evil and Evil will be called good.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Are the Saudis hoping ISIS will gain permanent control over a large territory (which probably means further expansion south and eventual death or poverty for most of the Saudi royal family), or are they counting on the United States to save their bacon? They have to know we are led by at best a gutless sissy, and more likely by someone who is cheering for ISIS. ISIS will not stop at Iraq, or Iraq and Syria; ISIS will take Iran and Saudi Arabia once they consolidate territory. My hope is that Saudi Arabia will enter the war soon with their air power and their armor. Otherwise, this will be a nightmare by the time we have a real president and Commander-in-Chief.


4 posted on 06/09/2015 2:35:21 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If ISIS gets established they will constantly be in conflict with Iran. That can't be all bad.

That relationship would mirror the Iraq-Iran frictions since the 70's. Considering both entities are headed by reactionaries it would likely be a perpetual conflict.

The downside is that an extremely agressive hostile state would exist closer to Israel's borders. I have no doubt that Israel can clean their clocks but unless they go unconventional, there will be a heavy price paid by Israel.

5 posted on 06/09/2015 2:37:46 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Win? they aren’t going to stop. Their idea of winning is when the whole world bows down 5 times a day and wears a burka or a beard.


6 posted on 06/09/2015 2:43:52 PM PDT by I want the USA back (Media: completely irresponsible. Complicit in the destruction of this country.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
2nd ... you want to give the obama crowd the bad news or should we leave them out of the loop?
7 posted on 06/09/2015 2:44:40 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Do what is Right ... It causes liberal heads to explode!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe the international commentariat should step up instead of waiting for the U.S. military under Obola to do all the heavy lifting.


8 posted on 06/09/2015 2:45:39 PM PDT by VTenigma (The Democratic party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

yep, my vote is ‘leave out of loop’


9 posted on 06/09/2015 2:48:26 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Do what is Right ... It causes liberal heads to explode!)
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To: I want the USA back; 2ndDivisionVet
> Win? they aren’t going to stop. Their idea of winning is when the whole world bows down 5 times a day and wears a burka or a beard.

That is indeed the long-range problem.

Those crazy SOBs will keep going until they've overrun the globe. There is enough of them to make a good stab at that goal, too.

10 posted on 06/09/2015 3:00:08 PM PDT by dayglored (Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is...sounding pretty good about now.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Picture Hamas-led Palestine on crack cocaine and armed to the teeth.


11 posted on 06/09/2015 3:03:21 PM PDT by AZLiberty (No tag today.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It means a big giant war with Iran.


12 posted on 06/09/2015 3:39:48 PM PDT by Codeflier (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama - 4 democrat presidents in a row and counting...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
And Rand Paul will blame which party?

Functionally there is only one party.

13 posted on 06/09/2015 3:51:39 PM PDT by null and void (I wish we lived in less interesting times, but at least we have front-row seats.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So which team should win? Sunni or Shia?


14 posted on 06/09/2015 4:09:24 PM PDT by Lorianne
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Add the new ISIL to North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc, and we have a communists killing empire that will be our worst nightmare once the tearing of America starts. We are on the cusp of something real bad.


15 posted on 06/09/2015 4:51:24 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Of course they can win. Nobody of any substance is trying to stop them.


16 posted on 06/09/2015 6:29:30 PM PDT by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

I'm sure once our President comes up with a policy things will change. Coming up with policies takes time, years sometimes.

17 posted on 06/10/2015 5:27:31 AM PDT by SJackson (an emotional nation, not a rational nation. You work from your gut and not your mind, BHO on Israel)
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To: Pollster1

ø: Index finger up for his brethren.


18 posted on 06/10/2015 6:27:59 AM PDT by onedoug
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
[snip] ...the New York Times suggested that if Baghdad's military is unwilling or unable to defeat ISIS -- if it is outgunned, out-organized, out-strategized and, one must add, terrorized by ISIS savagery -- outsiders should stay out. No boots on the ground, no escalation of air strikes; let us limit wasted resources. [/snip]

19 posted on 06/10/2015 1:45:34 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (What do we want? REGIME CHANGE! When do we want it? NOW)
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Iraqi Shiite militia commander threatens to attack US
Long War Journal | June 9, 2015 | By Bill Roggio
Posted on 06/10/2015 1:24:20 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3298912/posts


20 posted on 06/10/2015 1:57:10 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (What do we want? REGIME CHANGE! When do we want it? NOW)
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