Who Would Win A Conflict In The South China Sea: The Infographic

Zero Hedge ^ | 05/27/15

[Enlightened1]

Now, with Beijing set to enforce what is effectively a no-fly zone over its new sovereign ‘territory’ we bring you the following graphic from WSJ which shows that when it comes to sheer size, China’s air force and Navy are beyond compare.

China’s promise to beef up its naval capabilities to prevent further “meddling” and “provocative actions” by rivals in the South China Sea is a daunting prospect for most of its neighbors, which already view Beijing’s fast-improving armed forces with trepidation...

As a recent Pentagon review of China’s military modernization drive noted, “China is investing in capabilities designed to defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party—including U.S.—intervention during a crisis or conflict.” In practice, that means hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles positioned near the coast to deter Japanese or American warships from coming anywhere near Chinese territory. China has a substantial submarine fleet as well, piling on more risk for enemy ships.

[BeauBo]

"As far as the Chinese go, their CVBG is nowhere near ready for wartime operations"

They are building airbases in the sea, in lieu of carriers. Their strategy is called, "Use the land to control the Sea."

There are also reports of the Chinese installing long range radar and land based weapon systems - possibly the hypersonic "carrier killer" missiles that they have begun fielding. In fact, they are constructing a string of such man made islands with airfields, which could serve like carriers to project power, but which can not be easily sunk. We have strong advantages in some areas, and China is accumulating enemies, but the speed of their buildup greatly outstrips what we are doing. If trends don't change, the numbers will soon do the talking for them. They can build an island with an airbase on it in about two years, and have several underway simultaneously. The next administration could be facing a dozen carrier-equivalent island bases, fixed in the South China Sea, bristling with mach 10 DF-21D "carrier killer" missiles with a 900 mile range, and mobile nuclear missile launchers (They have a Pershing Missile clone now, thanks to Bill Clinton) . At current rates of shipbuilding, the Chinese could also field a couple of hundred additional naval vessels during the next administration.

[Cronos]

Also it would be good to get india in as well

[SampleMan]

No doubt that those island airstrips change the equation, but not the outcome. They would have to be resupplied and GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators (30k of explosive goodness) would wreak havoc on those newly built sand castles.

The true Chinese Achilles (for now) is oil. They must import, via ship, a large percentage of their needs. They are working to shift their dependence to Russia, which would protect them from the consequences of not controlling their extended SLOCs.

[SampleMan]

Actually, a MOAB with delayed fuze would probably be much better on that sand fill. Less penetration, but a lot more bang.

It would be interesting to weaponeer the effects of cutting a channel across these narrow dredge fill islands. Move and liquefy enough sand and let the sea do the rest. I’m thinking that hitting it right at high tide would be perfect, getting the blast down below the water level to better contain it.

Also it might create a standing wave in the water table that would ripple the entire length of a concrete runway. Or at least hundreds of feet of it. A string of smaller perpetrators could create an ongoing sinkhole problem.