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GDP Weakness: Weather Problem or Measurement Problem?
Real Clear Markets ^ | May 20, 2015 | Jonathan Wright

Posted on 05/20/2015 5:44:30 AM PDT by expat_panama

Economic output (gross domestic product or GDP) showed a mere 0.2 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2015. Last year, it was even worse, with a 2.1 percent contraction in the first quarter. Both years had especially harsh winters, but many commentators have now noticed that the pattern of weak first quarters has been around for longer -- not just in years with harsh winters. As a result, they are starting to question if the adjustments that the statisticians at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) make for seasonal effects in their calculations of growth are in fact adequate.

Unfortunately, researchers cannot adequately address the question of whether these numbers are low due to a seasonal adjustment problem because the BEA does not release the underlying not-seasonally adjusted data, nor does it provide details of how they implement the seasonal adjustment to the data. This secretive practice is bizarre and contrasts with other agencies, who are transparent about this crucial aspect of data construction.

Some researchers have attempted to assess the problem by looking for remaining seasonality in the supposedly seasonally adjusted data. Gilbert et al. (2015) test for whether there is a statistically significant remaining seasonal pattern, and find that the evidence is borderline. Rudebus


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; investing
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
...they should put the real numbers up along side...

What confidence do you have that they would provide accurate "real numbers"?
Career civil servants gather, assess and adjust the data so they can make the input and the adjusted data read any way they please - at least for as long as is needed to cover the behind of the current POTUS.
Any irregularities uncovered later will get about as much attention as the fudging of the global temperature raw measurements and further fudging of the adjusted temperatures. And voila! We have Global Warming!!

21 posted on 05/21/2015 9:08:49 AM PDT by citizen (WalkeRubio RIGHT For You 2016)
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To: citizen

What % of the time have you found this to be true?


22 posted on 05/22/2015 5:25:30 AM PDT by expat_panama
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