The fighting on Okinawa is a grim preview of what Olympic would be like, only on a much larger scale. The more I read, I don’t think the Olympic forces would have been thrown back into the sea. On the other hand, we were not going to clear the island and pacify it before the scheduled launch of Coronet the following spring. In fact, I’m guessing we would not have cleared Kyushu at all without a much more massive effort than we had planned.
American forces slated for Olympic were 14 divisions, with a projected strength of just under 700,000 men, to take a rugged island much larger than Okinawa. The Japanese had 14 divisions and 11 brigades in defense. Although the manpower was less than the Americans, and they lacked artillery and ammunition, they were going to fight as tenaciously as the Japanese ever did.
The projected occupation of Kyushu in 90 days was not going to happen. The Sugar Loaf, Chocolate Drop and Shuri Castle would be repeated dozens of times.
That said, I agree with you that it would have been a very heavy and bloody lift. The timetable was not realistic and I think we would have had to send more troops than originally planned in light of the heavy Japanese reinforcements. When Olympic was in the early planning stages Kyushu was lightly defended, but by May strong reinforcements were being sent. The Japanese knew our pattern and tactics that we would want land based air support to invade Honshu.
My Dad's 33rd Infantry is now scheduled and training to land in the first wave.
His job is evacuating wounded & dead from the battlefield, which means he's not usually right in front lines, but still close enough to sometimes come under fire.
Given Japanese fanaticism, and heavy casualties in US units, I don't see how he's going to make it... which means, I won't be here... how's that going to work?
Uncle Miltie: "Nuke ‘em, I say!"
What's a nukem?