Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals

New York Times ^ | May 5, 2015 | Nate Cohen

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The religious right remains the largest voting bloc in the Republican Party, and that gives Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, the potential to play a big role in the presidential nominating contest.

But Mr. Huckabee, who was set to announce his presidential bid Tuesday morning, will have a harder time winning Iowa than he did in 2008, when religious conservatives had serious reservations about the two main candidates, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

This year’s conservative favorites do not have Mr. Romney’s vulnerabilities among evangelicals, like Mormonism or past support for abortion rights. Some candidates might be outright good fits, like Scott Walker, an evangelical Christian and the son of a pastor.

Mr. Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister who won the Iowa caucuses and five state primaries in 2008, has retained at least some of his support among evangelical Christians, averaging around 8 percent in the polls — as much as fresh-faced candidates like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul.......

[SNIP]

Mr. Huckabee still has the potential to be a spoiler again. He could deny another conservative a large enough share of evangelical voters. He could even win himself. Mr. Huckabee remains a compelling retail politician with strong ratings. He led an NBC/Marist survey of Iowa as recently as two months ago. He has won Iowa before, after all.....

But the limits of Mr. Huckabee’s appeal were ultimately about his message and record. Fiscal conservatives were very skeptical of Mr. Huckabee, who raised taxes and increased spending as a governor.....

[Georgia Girl 2]

All Huck will do is make it harder for Ted Cruz. Huck has zero chance to win the nomination. He’s just a spoiler this go around.