Posted on 05/01/2015 7:18:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For Republicans looking ahead to 2016, Florida is the pivotal state in the Electoral College. Naturally, we can’t know exactly what will happen a year and a half from now, but from our current vantage point, it appears very likely that the GOP must win the state to have a shot at winning 270 or more electoral votes and control of the White House.
Given the state’s importance, particularly to the Republicans, it seems appropriate that the top two contenders for the party’s presidential nomination in the Crystal Ball’s rankings now hail from the Sunshine State.
Moving into the number two spot on our GOP list is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. The state’s junior senator has enjoyed a solid couple of weeks since announcing his candidacy on April 13, and his new position in our candidate list reflects that. He jumps ahead of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, while ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush remains at the top, though it’s important to stress just how tenuous Bush’s slotting remains at this very early point. This trio (Bush, Rubio, Walker) continues to make up our first tier, and they are tightly bunched together.
New survey data reflect Rubio’s improved stature. Prior to his announcement, Rubio had last seen double digits in national GOP primary polling in February 2014. Based on RealClearPolitics’ list of polls, Rubio’s average in the nine 2015 polls taken before April 13 was 5.9%. In the three surveys since his official entry, Rubio averaged 13% and held a (slim) lead in two of them. It’s true that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz got a similar poll bounce after his entry in late March, which seems to have receded somewhat, so it’s entirely possible that Rubio is just the latest benefactor of an announcement bounce.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
I fail to see this groundswell for Rubio. Even in Florida, I don’t hear anyone excited. This is beltway circle jerk at it’s best. Walker has a solid hold on Iowa right now, and Cruz has a large base built. Rubio’s definitely in the mix, but this is so contrived.
Rubio edges ahead of Walker in latest poll.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, tis Wisconsin interest ping list.
Agree! I get the feeling that Rubio is the Establishments surrogate for Jeb until they get Jeb ready for prime time. Rubio is definitely part of Team Jeb.
Can’t help to think this is nothing more than trying to set up a Lazio vs. Clinton Part Deu.
Most anyone would have a hard time convincing me that Saboto isn’t a liberal at heart.
nope Rubio isnt part of the Bush team...I expect to see the polls go up and down for quite some time till a clear leader emerges. Personally Id be happy with Cruz,Rubio or Walker...and any combo...
nope Rubio isnt part of the Bush team...I expect to see the polls go up and down for quite some time till a clear leader emerges. Personally Id be happy with Cruz,Rubio or Walker...and any combo...
This is nonsense.
Rubio’s support of amnesty doomed his chances for higher office.
God I hate elections and polls a year before it matters or means anything.
Well considering Governor Walker hasn’t announced yet, big deal. Only three politicians are running.....Cruz, Rubio and Paul. Nobody else has announced so what is the big deal?
Of those currently officially running, I like Cruz. Things could change. If his supporters turn into Buchanan supporter types then I won’t be able to go along.
Larry Sabato?
‘Nuff said.
Right. Nobody is a “big deal” right now. The polls won’t matter for a year; they (polls) will fluctuate every time a new candidate announces, someone quits, or someone screws up. As far as Bush or Cristi are concerned, I wouldn’t vote for either one, even if Jesus Christ himself asked me to. I like Cruz, Walker, Paul, and Rubio, in that order.
I think you are on to something, there. I certainly never considered that.
After all, Jeb mentored Rubio, and Rubio tried the immigration trapeze act with the Gang of Eight, who are always to the Left of the party, but are also always in good standing with the GOP and senate leadership, McConnell & Company.
Rubio, after the disastrous fail on immigration, turned away from immigration dramatically and was never seen within 10 feet of the progressive Republicans for a year and a half.
They all must like his chutzpah for angling between the extremes, enough to run for president in his own right, or they cut a deal to let him avoid them like the plague.
Florida may decide this race, you know. There are only a handful of states in the mix, if all other things fall the same as last election.
So, do you think given his age and the times, that he is covering his bets, angling to be a pick for VP, especially Jeb’s VP, a match made in heaven by their friendship?
See? That’s exactly what I think. I’m not enthused about any development of Tyrants for Cruz types finishing off FR.
Good grief, it’s only spring! And, only three have even announced! It was bad enough over McCain and Palin. When McCain went down, it was bad over just Palin. We can’t do that gangland pile on stuff. We do need to hope to come together, best we can cooperatively, as conservatives with the leading contender at some point early enough to stick it to Jeb in the primary at the stretch.
I don’t think Rubio is angling for anything. I think he is being directed toward something. The Establishment would want him in that VP slot with Jeb as the candidate. If Jeb doesn’t appear to pull it together through the primaries, then he’ll be replaced by Rubio.
The Establishment wouldn’t mind that at all because Rubio will be even easier to direct than Jeb is. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re already planning on replacing Jeb with Rubio eventually. They just have to work on Rubio a bit to get him ready. He’s got some negative baggage plus he doesn’t appear mature enough yet.
IOW Rubio is their back up plan. plan B if you will.
Yep, Rubio is plan B if they can’t get enough suckers to support their preferred amnesty candidate, Jebster.
Right.
So, if the big money is supposedly moving toward Jeb, what about that? Do you think Jeb would naturally support Rubio with it? I guess you think he would, certainly.
I’m curious about RINO deadlines. I wonder when it is that they and the money people draw the line, whether Jeb should even apply for the job, or maybe not.
I’m probably wrong about the VP spot though considering Jeb is also from Florida.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.