Posted on 02/24/2015 2:08:08 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Behold the beast the Democrats never intended to create: a thrice-elected Republican governor in a swing state with a cult following, appreciated by both the establishment of his party and the conservative base. Hes a governor with an enviable base approval rating who received an even larger share of his own partys vote in 2014 than 2010. This despite another year of John Doe drama, an unemployment picture that improved but fell short of his promises, a presidential appearance for his opposing Democrat (which had been missing in 2012), and the apparent flare-up between him and the Republican Governors Association head (and another presidential hopeful), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. The last bit was almost certainly a ruse, as Marquette polls, over the length of the cycle, found Walker in a tight but comfortable (for Wisconsin) position.
Walkers gubernatorial opponent, Mary Burke, had a narrow window to making things tougher for Walker but it would have required cracking Walkers incredible edge in the swing Green Bay-Appleton area and the scattered media markets of the northwest. She failed utterly in both areas, and despite cranking out enormous numbers of votes in Madison and Milwaukee, it mattered naught: she added more than 118,000 more votes to the Democrats 2010 performance but Walker added over 130,000 to his own, fueled by sustained growth in most counties outside of those Democratic anchors. Had Walker received the exact same number of votes as he had in 2010, Burkes surge would have still failed to unseat him:
[vote break-down graphic]
It seems like every new challenge builds the cult of Walker. Every visual overstep by his foes, like the recent protests at his parents house, or recent perceived gotchas, simply bring more money and more ground troops to Team Walker.
How did this happen? One horrendous political miscalculation, fueled by raging anger and hopelessness in the face of Act 10: the recall of 2012. The Silent Majority That Supports Scott Walker
Democrats were lulled into a sense of confidence as 2011 drew to a close, when polls showed Walker losing in just such a stunt. Labor unions, public employee unions, college students, and progressives not living in Madison were united and determined. They were confident. They were on the attack. Perhaps the 2011 Supreme Court election, where conservative Justice David Prosser surprised everyone and survived a challenge from Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg, should have been a sign of a silent majority waiting to be activated, but with the very real possibility that Act 10 would actually be enforced, they went forward, amassed the signatures, and succeeded in triggering a recall election. And so it began.
Walkers team kicked into overdrive and hasnt really stopped, both in GOTV efforts and fundraising. Data-driven and determined, they acquired the list of recall petitioners and used it to modify their voter contact rolls. They opened the doors and welcomed help from any organization willing to join their efforts, and pushed those who could to vote early. Then-Slate reporter Dave Weigel trekked to Wisconsin in May, and came away stunned by the scale of the operation. Walkers fundraising network is 300,000 donors strong, and believe me, his staff stays in constant contact with each and every one of them (full disclosure: I contributed to the Walker campaign in 2012).
To make matters worse, Democrats picked a candidate with zero appeal in swing areas: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who had already lost to the governor in the 2010 election. On the night of the recall primary, my side project, AoSHQDD, was in its infancy, and we were stunned at the tally Walker, facing only token opposition, received. The governor received nearly as many votes as all of the Democratic candidates combined, evidence again of a silent majority receptive to defending him. Things never got better for the Democrats as the recall election neared. Early voting returns out of Madison were impressive, but so were those out of Brookfield, the city in Waukesha County that saved Justice Prosser. Polling consistently showed the governor ahead, and he was: the final average found Walker winning by just under seven points, and thats exactly what happened.
While Madison votes were assured, and his own citys votes could be counted on, Mayor Barrett failed miserably to connect with the very voters that chose Walker in 2010, defended him in 2012, and continue to stand by him: white blue-collar and middle-class voters in the western and northeastern parts of the state. President Obama held Mitt Romney to a scant lead in Brown County (Green Bay), while Walker carried it by 20 points. The president also easily won the scattered other media markets outside of Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay. Walker carried this same region by 12 points.
How massive was Walkers win? Consider the chart below, showing the total votes received by every Republican presidential candidate from 1984 to 2012. Understand that the recall saw hundreds of thousands of fewer votes cast than the presidential one, yet Walker not only won more votes than Romney in a full third of the counties, he set a record for votes cast for any Republican candidate in seven counties. Further, he carried several counties, easily, that havent voted for any Republican presidential candidate since Reagan (Trempealeau, Buffalo). We are talking strong levels of support in regions that went against both Bushes, Dole, McCain, and Romney.
[graphic]
The victory itself was a massive confidence-booster among conservative Republicans disillusioned with their partys performance in Congress: they finally had a guy who fights. Even after the sting of the presidential race, a sizable portion remembered the man with the throne of skulls. It wasnt lost on many that Walker and President Obama had won by virtually identical margins just six months apart. The Scott Walker Hate Unified Republicans
The attempt to boot Walker by Wisconsin progressives and labor activists accomplished a rare feat: absolute party unity. But instead of unifying Democrats enough to unseat him, it created a brief moment where libertarian, establishment, Tea Party, and traditional conservative members of the Republican Party united to defend him. He just wasnt some guy: he was their guy and, damn it, they were not going to let him fall. This unity didnt end with the recall: Walker received a jaw-dropping 96 percent of the Republican vote in 2014 per the exits, and election analysts have frequently pointed to him as the possible bridge candidate between the money and masses within the party. Again, without the recall challenge, would he be enjoying such overwhelming party support as he does now? Would he even be dipping his toe in the water?
The ferocity of the anti-Walker attacks during the recall attempt cannot be understated: no stone was left unturned, no scandal or slip of the tongue left unmentioned, and this may only help candidate Walker going into 2016. The Democrats spent millions of dollars and thousands of hours digging, scooping, ad-cutting, and hammering. They threw the kitchen sink at the guy in 2012, threw their neighbors sink at him in 2014, and now nobody on the block will let them inside to pee. Out of useful topsoil, what do they do now?
Had the Democrats not targeted Walker with a recall, that massive fundraiser network, the national profile, the party unity, and his highly developed get-out-the-vote team almost certainly wouldnt exist. He may have still won re-election, but he would be just another Midwestern Republican governor who enacted reforms and faced push-back, not the conservative folk hero of a party longing for a win. He would most likely resemble Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a reformer but hardly a man with a cult following. There would still be plenty of new problems with the governor his opposition could cite, instead of leaving him mostly vetted for 2016.
They shot the king and missed, making a balding, sleepy-eyed executive into a god among a growing horde of followers. Thats bad enough for the Progressive set. In the unlikely event he wins the Republican nomination and the presidency? They struck the match that ignited their own national hell.
Bump for folks to watch the debatee video.... make sure to have some popcorn ready :-)
A 4 month siege on the state capital and then they just kept digging that hole.
Wow, you nailed it. How the man could sit there calmly and then come back with clear articulating is beyond me. He didn’t interrupt the guy one time, like Biden would do, and then calmly made his points.
We as Americans, all Americans, can learn from this man.
No I won't.
Most of them believe strongly on Ted Cruz, who is a great conservative. Unfortunately, they view Walker as standing in the way of Ted Cruz (rather than working with Ted Cruz), and are over-playing one article written by a liberal journalist (that has since been rebutted by Walker) as a means of getting Cruz into office.
I'll debate them one-on-one, but I won't take names.
Cruz and walker are the top 2 candidates in my book. Walker has already been fully vetted by the press and this is useful because we already know what most of the attack ads will contain. Walker is a little more telegenic which helps with the low info crowd. He’s calm and collected and knows how to shut the ‘press’ down and avoid gotcha traps.
The FR libertarians need to quit bringing up the amnesty crap, not one shred of legislation around amnesty has been put forth by Walker. They need to quit wasting votes on lame candidates promising free marijuana and wake the hell up.
Scott Walker wiil do what he says he will do after the election. I find that to be a trait worthy of my support regardless if I can agree 100% on every issue.
wiil=will
BTTT, video
That one hits me like the "Click it or Ticket" seatbelt campaign. Makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
“......scott walker is a ......rino”...........
You must be talking about a different Scott Walker than we know here in Wisconsin.
The demodummies will not be the ones who MIGHT cause his downfall, its the rino “old guard” republicans who are truly afraid of him as they were Sarah Palin. I would be utterly surprised if they picked him as “their” candidate. Unfortunately that could be the countries loss and Wisconsin’s gain.
I prefer Cruz to Walker, but have seen this phenomenon up close here on FR. It's distressing to watch as so many repeat these really thin exaggerations, giving link after link to convince people that Walker is an amnesty shill. I've spent way too much time discussing this issue with people who only want to destroy Walker so that Cruz will somehow be stronger as a candidate.
Then there are the ones who claim that Walker is no different than Jeb.........the circular firing squad at its best.
We have met the enemy and he is us.
The Democrats spent millions of dollars and thousands of hours digging, scooping, ad-cutting, and hammering. They threw the kitchen sink at the guy in 2012, threw their neighbors sink at him in 2014, and now nobody on the block will let them inside to pee.
Most of us know who democrats really are... they're child rapist types with orgy islands, communists, liars, black thugs and Grubers - propped up by white liberal elite useful idiots in the MSM...Walkers ready for 'em,,,
Marking.
GOPJ......you have nailed the rat base.
:)
Thanks
He (and every other GOP candidate) needs to respond with ridicule whenever some mediaite comes at them with the standard leftist religious test questions.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.