Posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather
National Weather Service experts misjudged the path and impact of the blizzard that struck the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model, several independent meteorologists said.
Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.
This time, the European forecasting model was wrong, several commercial forecasters said. That model, one of four complex computer simulations normally used to calculate weather patterns along the Eastern seaboard, predicted that the heaviest snow would fall between 50 and 100 miles farther west than actually occurred. Still, it correctly calculated the broader outlines of the blizzard. As predicted, the storm pounded parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine, with winds in excess of 50 mph and snow in some locales up to 30 inches deep.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Science!
Models, schmodels.
It’s funny that they cant predict thing 2 days out, but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...
Not a problem. Shall we apply the same standards of accuracy to the Global Warming computer predictions?!
The Euro model had been doing much better than the GFS(US) model for years. That why they went with the Euro.
“in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model,”
But the science is settled!
/ snerk
And will bet the economy on it ...
The Greatest Weather Forecaster, in my opinion, was Group Captain Sir J. M. Stagg. He certainly did not have the Billions of dollars in forecasting equipment that they have today, but with some weather balloons and scientific guessing he made D-Day possible in June 1944.
The last I knew , scienc was "GIGO" (Garbage in /Garbage out)as far as computer models.
Maybe they need to reorganize their information based on facts, rather that tell us about fantasy "GOWBULL CLIMATE CHANGE " !!
Correct, but we never hear about all the times the Euro model was correct and the US models missed badly...
GFS has not done too well since it was upgraded a year or two ago, at least not for tropical storms. Euro was better.
They can’t predict 4 hours out.
Why should anyone believe they can predict 100 and 200 years out?
Consensus in weather forecasting, as in all science, does not make it so. I wish the smartest people on Earth would remember this.
The Pope tried this when the Earth was the center of the solar system, be decree and be consensus.
The consensus was also the Louis Pasteur could never successfully develop a vaccine for rabies.
But those computers that predict global warming, climate change and rising sea levels are beyond reproach.
“But the science is settled!”
More like Science Fiction!!!
I’ll stick with my Weather Rock....At least it works.
I believe the GooFuS was upgraded in Nov., 2014.
I trust Farmer’s Almanac more.
Was it upgraded before that as well? It kept spinning up phantom storms this year.
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