[DoodleDawg]

This should be interesting. It’s almost certain to be a 5-4 decision no matter which way the court decides.

[Lurking Libertarian]

The Court, in granting cert., actually said that it will decide two questions: (1) does the 14th Amendment require all states to permit same-sex marriages, and (2) does the Constitution require all states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. Question 2 is irrelevant if the Court answers question 1 "yes." So, my own bet is that: the Court will answer question 1 "no" but will answer question 2 "yes"; and that both rulings will be 5-4, with Kennedy in the majority in both.

In effect, this will legalize same-sex marriage in all 50 states, but it will require gays in states like Oklahoma to travel out-of-state to have the ceremony performed; Oklahoma will then have to recognize their marriage when they return. This will permit Kennedy to both legalize same-sex marriage everywhere while still saying that he hasn't abandoned states' rights.