Posted on 01/09/2015 7:04:41 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
It's all very simple: the Republicans lost Florida in the 2012 presidential election by 0.88. If conservatives stay at home in 2016 in the same numbers as they did in 2012, then there is no chance of the GOP winning. If conservatives are advised by Governor Palin (unlike in 2012) and Mark Levin to either stay home or vote third-party, then it is impossible to see how Florida could be won by, for example, Jeb Bush.
However, for argument's sake, if, because of Bush's Florida connection and a bad economy, Florida is won, then Ohio (-2.98%), Virginia (-3.88%), and Colorado (-5.36%) also have to be roped-in. The road to 270 Electoral College votes is extremely difficult under the most optimal of circumstances; utter realism indicates that it is impossible with the slightest bleeding off of actual or potential votes from 2012.
What Ralph Nader did for Al Gore's hopes in 2000 would be a pinprick compared to the mountain a Republican nominee would face with a conservative base doing a de Blasio back-turn. There is no comparison with Reagan's 1980 victory, even though there was Republican John Anderson, running as an independent, who got 6.6% of the vote. This is because a Republican won't win both New York and California, as Reagan did, for the foreseeable future.
If the Republican nominee is an establishment figure, a Bush or a Christie, then he has to face the question of his relationship with Governor Palin. Mitt Romney didn't have her as part of his campaign or even have her address the Republican Convention (at which she was the star just four years earlier) in 2012. What did that avail him? There is, of course, no way to determine if the millions of potential GOP voters who stayed home might have turned out...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Jim,
Please see my posts @ #22 & #48 this thread.
We are about to enter another Presidential election cycle, and there will be much heated debate over how to best restore the Republic. With this in mind I would like to clarify the official position of Free Republic on a specific question:
Does a United States citizen have a civic and Christian duty to participate in every election?
I for one would like to know where this forum stands.
You may debate it with the participants of the forum.
By the way, IMHO, if you survey the candidates and determine they’re all evil, then you may decline to vote for any of them. And that action satisfies your civic and moral duty.
Thank you for that clarification.
A third party or a independent candidate will rise, if a rino is nominated, and people who vote for him or her would get the largest third candidate vote in history. But they wouldn’t win, unless they peel off Jeb/Romney/Rino voters and maybe even Libertarians who would vote for the Libertarian Party.
You still don’t get it do ya?
Ummmm... No.
Pubs nominate a conservative like Cruz = Republicans win.
Last time we nominated a real conservative, who was “too extreme right wing to win” (according to the lamestream media), he won by the biggest landslide in contemporary history, TWICE. His name was Ronald Reagan.
Nominate Ted Cruz and just watch us clobber Hilary Clinton, who will NOT get the super high black vote turnout that the Kenyan got. Cruz on the other hand will definitely get a very high conservative vote turnout. He will be the first time conservatives have had any reason to vote for DECADES.
Watch “us” clobber Hillary. Who is the “us”? The same “us” that can’t even get a conservative speaker of the house or senate majority leader? It is a different world since Reagan. Conservatives can’t even run a party much less the country. We have a LOT of work to do to educate the masses and garner the votes needed. wishful thinking isn’t enough.
Trouble with you is, you are too hung up looking for reasons why conservatives will fail, to even think of why conservatives will win.
The country is very different from when Reagan won?
Yup. Republicans control more seats in the House, more state governorships and more state houses of assembly by far today than they ever did when Reagan was in power.
All the GOP did lately was keep nominating RINOs, who inevitably got clobbered by out of the charts left wing extremists like Obama. It’s like taking an aspirin tablet to try and cure cancer. The only way you are going to fight the extreme left wing party that the Democratic Party has become, is to fight fire with fire: NOMINATE A REAL CONSERVATIVE FOR A CHANGE. We already tried the RINO’s. They got slaughtered in the elections.
Conservatives can’t run a party let alone the country? Well conservatives like Walker have managed to fundamentally transform erstwhile liberal states like Wisconsin , while eviscerated the previously very powerful unions in the process.
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