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Yes, I know the system is different. But what isn't different is this: the prediction was that UKIP would pull only a handful of support out of the conservatives, to the benefit of the liberals, and would never gain enough traction among the voters to have any effect. That prediction was 100% wrong. It failed to take into account the level of disconnect between both parties, and their voters, and woefully underestimated the potential number of votes out there that were attainable. And it is that prediction which is also untrue, when applied to the US.

A successful build of a 3rd party would take a number of election cycles, during which conservatism would have the same impact it has now (zero), due to the nature of the American system. But at the end of it, there is a realistic potential of emerging as either the majority or the minority party. At the end of our current approach, however, there is the absolute certainty that our country will be much further to the left than it is now, and conservatism will be as relevant here as it is in N. Korea.

Which has no bearing on this. I didn’t say 5 GOPers going independent would pull support away from anybody or benefit anybody. I said it would be a hollow gesture that had no effect other than to end their careers.

Building a 3rd party here would have nothing to do with somebody going independent. To do it they need to be national but not aim federal until they’ve got good numbers. Win a lot of legislature seats, mayorals, governorships. Stuff where the structure isn’t rigged, or is at least small enough to de-rig. Then, when they have enough of a following that they could actually win 10 to 20% of congressional seats (enough so that even though they’d be a minority they could seriously gum up the works, so they’d have to start being included) aim for the fed.

Of course as it sits right now all the 3rd parties take joy in losing. They think of themselves as noble Quixotes, so they aim for all kinds of stuff they can’t win and remain proud of their purity. None of them will ever succeed because they don’t want to.