Not having a Reagan is a problem, but the public can’t stomach and Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia could inflict real harm and China would likely stop making crap for us. That is why where won’t be a major conflict with Russia.
Russians will starve if Putin inflicts “real harm” because nobody will want to do business with an unstable Russia. He’ll be begging Zimbabwe for business. EU, Chicoms, everybody else will take a pass.
Russia knows it is too weak for war with NATO, and to lose it’s military would leave Russia open to dismantling by internal and external forces.