Posted on 11/26/2014 5:37:21 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Rep. Jim Costa was thought to be headed for a safe race. The California Democrat represents a district that supported President Obama by a 19-point margin in 2012—and while Costa had had scares in previous midterms, 2014 appeared to be in the bag. And indeed, Costa did keep his seat, but only after squeaking through one of the tightest races of the entire cycle, a vote count so close that it took 15 days for him to be officially declared the victor over Republican candidate and dairy farmer Johnny Tacherra.
So what happened? Costa nearly fell victim to a radically different midterm electorate. The total number of ballots cast in the race dropped 40 percent from 2012 to 2014, according to data compiled by Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report.
Costa's story is a microcosm of the turnout problem that plagued Democrats up and down the 2014 ticket, but it's particularly troubling for the party because Costa's district is among the most heavily Latino in the country.
Turnout also plunged in other heavily Latino districts, such as the one where Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney narrowly won reelection in a California district Obama won by 18 points in 2012. There, turnout was down nearly 47 percent between 2012 and 2014. In the state's 31st District, Rep.-elect Pete Aguilar, who was the heavy favorite in his race, won by just over 3,000 votes after a 52 percent drop-off of voters from 2012 to 2014. And Rep. Lois Capps, whose district Obama won by 11 points in 2012, won by fewer than 8,000 votes after a 32 percent drop-off.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Preezy Ogruber acknowledged their value as fruit pickers and bed makers.
And this is the thanks he gets?
I’m not a democrat but I’ve lost my enthusiasm, does that count.
This could be a scenario that continues for a long while.
The democrat could win presidential elections, while Republicans win big during midterm years. This is because ‘Low Information’ voters tend to turn out for presidential elections in great numbers, while informed tax paying voters turn out for midterms. Most “Low Information’ voters probably don’t even know what a Congressman or a Senator IS, let alone when to vote for one.
Most of them REALLY ARE that stupid....
I believe with the ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION issue, Hispanics is going to drift towards Republicans. Most Hispanics are against it.
Note the comparison between 2012 and 2014, not 2010 and 2014. In other words the author made the numbers look worse by comparing a non midterm with a midterm.
I've noticed most of the mainstream press and pollsters did not want to use the figures from 2010 because it was a shellacking (Obama's word) and they didn't want to project another shellacking (as it turned out to be).
I also noticed far less polls than in 2010 despite the fact that the press was discussing a possible wave election.
The other thing this article does is not to talk about how Republicans and Conservatives feel about the midterm. I wonder why ;)
The dims may have facilitated their population surge but with a gathering plutrality and even outright majority in some precincts, I think their agenda is to "self-govern".
But in the meantime they’ll vote democrat.
Half of eligible Latinos dont vote. They must not care too much about politics. If the GOP was really as evil as they say, 90% of hispanics would register and 90% of them would vote Democrat.
GOP consultants are chasing people who have little sway on the swing states.
The browning of America that non-Americans tout that only corrupt politicans and non-citizens supported = democracy hijacked.
Some interesting insights on this thread, and perhaps there is something else to consider.
I have read that many Hispanics and Latinos have a good work ethic, show up on time, and support family values. Obviously there are exceptions (drug gangs, etc).
There seems to a history of tension between the black community and the Hispanic/Latino community. Will this increase in the future, as jobs shift to the better workers? Polarization is a possibility, if blacks are seen as the pets of the dem party, and the endorsement of anti-family values by liberals continues among the liberal dems.
The dems might be surprised if they lose the vote of this demographic, probably because of their elitist assumptions that they will vote the same as the blacks.
Frankly I think the RATS stole it. There were 11 close races in California. The Rats won every one of them. That is a probability 1 out of 2048. In the case of this one they pulled the votes from Fresno that went 75% for Costa in a race that was razor thin. I don’t think this election was typical , the Republican really worked the locals in an almost door to door campaign. He even went to Union meetings! It’s too bad they managed to steal it from Johnny Tacherra because he is a real salt of the Earth kind of fellow.
There is MUCH MORE of a Latino problem for Democrats than this article is letting on. In Texas and the rest of the South (plus New Mexico) Republicans are WINNING because Latinos are voting about 45% Republican, and that includes candidates that are NOT pandering, like Dan Patrick in Texas. At the same time, whites are now voting 75-90% Republican, which leaves the Dems ONLY with black votes and that is why they’re getting their clocks cleaned here.
If the above numbers for Hispanics and whites spread, or even start to spread, North, it’s TOTALLY OVER for the Democrats.
Obviously you won’t read about that...
I don’t think Hispanic Democrats play identify politics as well as blacks, especially in areas where it is majority Hispanic
Though Johnny is a dairyman the big dairy were for his opponent.
“The dems might be surprised if they lose the vote of this demographic, probably because of their elitist assumptions that they will vote the same as the blacks.”
Correct. Blacks (in general) may not care if guns are taken away, gays marry, and businesses are regulated to death, but Hispanics do, as the Dems probably have not figured out yet.
Weren’t the TX Latinos firmly for Wendy Davis though the turnout was low?
“Weren’t the TX Latinos firmly for Wendy Davis though the turnout was low?”
Only in the Rio Grande Valley, and she only got about 65% there - and they dominate the population down there, so those areas, overall, voted for her - and made it look like she dominated there - but there aren’t that many people there (relatively speaking, and her margin was not that much). The state as a whole voted about 55% for her, and the majority of Hispanic males actually voted for Abbott. There was nothing good in the numbers for Dems, and with those numbers you could double or triple the Hispanic turnout and state would still stay red.
Are you Latino, Hispanic, in business, self employed?
Why are you friggin around with the openly ANTI-BUSINESS job-killing democRATS?
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