U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050
BY JEFFREY S. PASSEL AND D’VERA COHN
Executive Summary
If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.
Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren.
Among the other key population projections:
Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago.
The major role of immigration in national growth builds on the pattern of recent decades, during which immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren accounted for most population increase. Immigration’s importance increased as the average number of births to U.S.-born women dropped sharply before leveling off.
The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.
Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth; as a result, a smaller proportion of both groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than is the case now.
The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050.
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/
The racial political relation isn’t as tight as the doom sayers want to think. 10 years ago we were supposed to be looking at a permanent conservative majority, a few years before that the libs were insisting their majority was going to be permanent, now you’re insisting the dems are going to have a permanent majority. Meanwhile out here in reality the country is divided basically in 3rds: 1/3 basically conservative, 1/3 basically liberal, and the mushy middle. And it’s that middle that decides elections, and makes sure there are no permanent majorities.
I will lay out EXACTLY what will happen over the next handful of elections:
2 years from now unless the GOP really screws it up (basically by obsessing on Obama, forget him, he’ll be gone) whoever they nominate will win the White House. With small coattails in Congress (very small owing to how much they already control).
2 years after that, the first mid term. Barring another 2002 botch by the dems the GOP loses a bunch of seats. Again given the numbers they already have expect it to be major.
2 years after that, as much as America loves to loves to undercut the president’s party in midterm they still love to re-elect presidents.
2 years after that, second midterm. GOP bloodbath.
2 years after than the mushy middle will have had their fill of the GOP in the White House and the dem nominee wins.
But then things reset, same pattern as above, just switch the parties, GOP gains in the midterms, dem pres gets re-elected, another 2nd midterm bloodbath, and then the GOP gets the White House back.
The mushy middle decides elections, and the mushy middle grows weary of the guys in charge. There are no permanent majorities. And anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t pay attention to the plainly obvious highly repetitive cycle of election results.