Soon, Within the Lives of Most of You, the American Dream Will Slip Away.

If we accept that demographics in national presidential elections are increasingly running against Republicans and even more against conservatives, we must assume that the norm will be left-leaning Presidents. Looking beyond the 2014 election and the 2016 election as well, as demographics continue to run against us, the Senate will also increasingly trend left. However, the hold by Republicans and conservatives in the House of Representatives looks to be solid for some years to come, primarily because Republicans dominate state legislatures and draw district lines.

Regardless of the outcome of the 2016 election this demographic disadvantage condemns conservatism to a defensive posture for the foreseeable future, absent some sort of cataclysmic event like slavery and the Civil War or the Great Depression which fundamentally changes party alignment and enables Republicans to regularly gain national power. Absent such a tectonic shift, Democrats will routinely prevail after the 2016 election and its consequences are played out. As conservatives are forced back to the House of Representatives as a defensive citadel, they will try to serve our children and grandchildren by stopping an increasingly aggressive Democrat President in the Obama mold, that is, an executive who imposes power through executive action (and inaction), and bureaucratic lawmaking and adjudication. Conservatives will strive to do that but too many Republicans will not.

In other words, Democrat Presidents will operate where they can be free of the checks and balances invested by the Constitution in the House of Representatives. The House will look in vain to the courts to bring the executive back under the control of the Constitution but that will become hopeless in short order as increasingly leftist Senates confirm increasingly leftist judges. The precedent set by Harry Reid to jigger the rules of the Senate will become irreversibly fixed in favor of Democrats when they ultimately retake the Senate. Over time, perhaps sooner than we would like to think, constitutionalists will find no salvation in the courts. The recent trend in the Supreme Court to overrule Obama's blatant excesses like recess appointments is a trend which will not continue because the court will change with more leftist judges appointed by Democrats and because leftist Presidents will simply become more clever which is to say, more devious.

Government by bureaucracy will accelerate. Even if the House of Representatives can check the creation of new agencies, existing agencies are so ubiquitous, so powerful and so unrestrained that an aggressive President in the Obama mold can simply rule through them. He will build on the precedents being established now by Barack Obama. These agencies have assumed the Article I power to legislate, the Article II power to prosecute, and, worse, the Article III power to adjudicate the very same crimes they have created. The Montesquieu ideal of a government of separated powers with checks and balances will simply die as an increasingly dependent electorate supports Democrat politicians who want to Get Things Done which translates in the English language to pandering to more dependent voters. The courts have traditionally granted unwarranted deference to bureaucratic fiats. There is little hope to be found among The Nine. The power of the purse in the House of Representatives will not avail. The House of Representatives will be virtually powerless to stop bureaucratic tyranny.

Whatever indirect control that would exist in the Senate over appointments to the bureaucracy will be abdicated as Democrats regain control of the Senate within the next two or three cycles. Meanwhile, recent history tells us that lack of unity by Senate Republicans means the Democrats can combine with Mavericks to confirm their appointments. There is simply no stomach in the Senate to resist even extreme radical leftists in posts like Attorney General. There is virtually no hope that the appointment process will control the bureaucracy even considering the unlikely possibility that the Republicans now in the majority in the Senate might actually withhold all confirmations apart from defense appointments. There are too few senators like Ted Cruz to carry this strategy out. We have seen how the McCain/Graham/Ayotte fifth column operates. The media will simply pile on.

The obvious need not be belabored, the power of impeachment will be rendered obsolete by a recalcitrant Senate composed of Democrats and Rino Republicans. As always, they will be supported by a blatantly partisan media. Anyway, House leadership will not countenance articles of impeachment.

Conservatives and Republicans in the House of Representatives will have the power of the purse as its sole remaining lever to try to restrain a federal government governing against the people.

In other words if the Right can manage to hold the House of Representatives, the situation will look like the era of Obama post 2010 and if the House is lost the picture will resemble the era of Obama post 2008. If the House is lost to Republicans, the power of the purse disappears entirely; if Republicans can hold the House that power will sadly be even less effective in bringing a overweening government under control than it has been post 2010. The Republican House has simply not been able to reduce spending and certainly has not been able to curb executive excesses. We are contemplating dispiriting stages of increasing impotence for the House of Representatives and, by extension, for conservatism. It is easy to see an increasingly uncivil society with the American dream slipping irretrievably away.

To paint a pessimistic future even darker, this gloomy assessment is predicated on the assumption that the center will hold, that the citadel of the House of Representatives will not only remain Republican but remain unified and committed to some level of conservatism. These assumptions have been challenged by recent history. We saw the House turned over to the other party in 2006 and, even discounting such a possibility in the next few cycles, it is quite likely that the Republican majority will attrite as the Democrat money machine is able to pick off marginal Republican House seats. Other Members will simply be bought off with "honest" graft and by K Street. Republican leaders will behave in the mold of Speaker Boehner and talk conservative while they walk Rino. Even if the House remains nominally Republican for the foreseeable future, the power of the House of Representatives to shape the destiny of the country toward a decent society will inevitably diminish over time because the House acting alone does not have the tools even with the power of the purse. While the House acting alone does not possess the tools, the Senate does not have the heart.

But what about the last election when the people rose up and swept the Democrats out of control of the Senate, swept many of them out of the House of Representatives, swept them out of state houses, elected Republican governors in Maryland Massachusetts and Illinois of all places, is this not a shift in the national sentiment and does it not mean that Republicans, contrary to the above scenario, will be able to hold the Senate and will be able to elect a president in 2016? Does it not mean that conservatism retains its appeal for the majority of Americans? Wrong question. Wrong time horizon.

If you believe that demographics is destiny, Barack Obama is shaping our destiny by executive fiat. He is importing unknown millions of a dependent class who will eventually vote overwhelmingly Democrat. These voters will not be certified in time for the 2016 election but perhaps by 2020. What is clear is that at some not too distant point in the future, in time to gain power over the lives of your children and my grandchildren, perhaps ten million to twenty million new voters will be enrolled mostly on the Democrat side.

Obama believes that he is in a win-win position. Either the Republicans acquiesce in his power grabs or overreact and impeach him or shut down the government. To protest that it will be Obama himself who will have actually shut down the government is like a tree falling in an empty forest; the media will report it the other way. Either way, Obama, banking on support of the media, wins because he is eagerly courting both government shutdown and impeachment. After all, he has the historical examples of the impeachment of Bill Clinton and the reaction to the last government shutdown. Conventional wisdom holds that Republicans overreached in both examples. And Republican leadership has uncritically accepted conventional wisdom.

The Republicans just won a stunning election victory and their momentum should carry them on to exercising effective political power. Nothing could be more illustrative of the Republican malaise than their inability to mount a coherent response to Obama's usurpations even after the people so overwhelmingly elected them to do so. Rather than educating the public about Obama's shredding the Constitution and what that means in their daily lives, establishment Republican leaders admonish their own to avoid the "P" word and the "S"hutdown word. This in the wake of an election in which they undermined conservative candidates everywhere. Scarcely a word has been uttered by any Republican leader that would educate the public about the gravity of this assault on the Constitution by Barack Obama. After knowing for months that Obama's immigration diktat was coming, the Republicans mounted no sustained effort to convince the country that their liberty is at stake.

Beyond that, no evidence that the Republican leadership is endeavoring to connect the in-flood of untold millions of immigrants with lower wages, lost jobs, flooded emergency rooms, overcrowded schools, dangerous streets, higher taxes, terrorist infiltration and terrorist attacks, and bigger more bloated government. There is no effective coordinated attempt by the Republican leadership to tell the people why this is such a miscarriage of their liberty and a looting of their purse. Republican leadership has been lobotomized.

Instead of educating the country, the Republican establishment disparages Tea Party conservatives who would. If the Republicans can do no better now in the wake of such a stunning election victory, how will they behave when they inevitably lose future elections? Somewhere over the time horizon the chance of retrieving the country from the brink will be irretrievably lost. That day is probably closer than we think.

We are describing an inevitability arising out of demographics but there is another aphorism besides demographics is destiny: Culture trumps politics. Just as conservatives are being swamped by demographics so conservatives are clearly losing the culture war. The culture which shapes our politics has been co-opted by the left. It is not necessary to recount every institution which has been given over to leftism but, clearly, our universities and high schools, our eleemosynary institutions and foundations like Ford Rockefeller etc., Hollywood, public service unions and private sector unions, the media and many of our churches have all been infiltrated and are now dominated by the left. Most galling, in many cases left has contrived to force conservative taxpayers to involuntarily fund the indoctrinations of our children through their ubiquitous cultural domination.

Even if demographics inevitabilities were not about to swamp us, our elections are being lost in the culture and, therefore, there is no guarantee, indeed no reason to believe, that Republican victories, if they can somehow be had, will lead to conservative governance. Recent history, cultural realities and common sense rule out that assumption. Thus, we are moving to the conclusion that there is very little chance of long-term conservative governance in American national politics. More, even if Republicans are elected and nominally take control of the federal government, for example in 2016, there is very little reason to believe that they will govern as conservatives. Finally, once we get past the 2016 election and any Republican administration then elected, we are confronted with the dismal prospect of spending years in the political wilderness as we impotently watch the country disintegrate.

Why is the country in danger of disintegration? Even without Obama, the Democrat party has surrendered itself to Marxism so any subsequent Democrat presidents are likely to govern in the manner of Barack Obama and that implies an increasing level of tyranny. They will have his administration as a precedent for more usurpations. The capacity as well as the incentive of Republicans to protect us from tyranny is illusory.

But even without Democrats in control, the federal government is on automatic pilot toward a terrible fiscal reckoning with a national debt of approximately $18 trillion, unfunded liabilities probably well in excess of $100 million, incalculable trillions of dollars of derivative threats floating above Wall Street, a world economy in deflation mode with no one really understanding why, certainly no one at the Fed which has been unable to fix it. The country faces external threats from Islamic radicals, Russian thugs, and an expansionist and aggressive China. If we do nothing, events are likely to take over to our peril.

What to do? By all means we should strive to elect conservatives but over time we are unlikely to prevail because of demographics, culture, media and the infamous pusillanimity of Republican leadership. We are unlikely to win any elections and, even having won, unlikely to produce conservative governance. The solution clearly is not to be found in Washington. To continually seek the solution in Washington with the evidence of failure after failure is to deserve to be defined as "insane." Yet, if we don't act….

There is a solution outside of Washington in an arena untainted by many of the influences which render conservatives impotent in Washington and that, of course, is in our state legislatures where many conservatives hold sway and where the playing field is much more to our advantage. The Article V movement does offer a constitutionally authorized way to save the Republic. With the wave of Republican victories in state legislatures in the last election the odds of getting effective amendments through have been increased while the ability to derail unwise amendments has reached moral certainty. As a conservative I entertain a jaundiced view of the moral nature of man and I do not except state legislators from that judgment, I merely say that they will be corrupt in a different way from the national legislators, a way less dangerous than the corruption in those who hold so much power over every aspect of our lives in Washington.

The upside is certainly not guaranteed, it is a daunting task after all to convince three quarters of the states to ratify a change to the Constitution, but it is certainly more likely than reforming Washington. To line up three quarters of the states behind amendments that would actually change Washington procedurally where it counts, for example, in reining in the bureaucracy and the judiciary, is not an easy undertaking and probably would require some sort of national shock to overcome inertia but every day the likelihood of that shock increases.

We can either grab hold of the remedy supplied to us by the framers of the Constitution and embark on reforming our government according to conservative lines through the Article V process or we can passively watch the crackup.

I don’t like what’s happening with the culture as its turning toxic to christians. And at current rates of change will lead to persecution in two generations or so. I don’t like what’s happening with the demographics because the country is being dumbed down in a big way.

However, the economics are a different matter.

The world that we know came into existence when US oil production peaked in 1970 and the period of dam building ended and the desalination went overseas and thorium reactors were abandoned...You see the greatest generation...the generation of our fathers actually understood how to extend out their civilization economically. But I think the change in the immigration laws in 1965, the Viet Nam war and the triumph of the atheists caused a cultural civilization loss of nerve.
so in the end the greatest generation dropped the ball.

However, the world of cheap water and energy will return here in 10 years or so. It will cause a massive explosion of wealth around the world that will include the US middle class. The dollar is on the road to getting much stronger.

On energy, the fracking supply revolution is only the leading edge. What’s behind it is even more significant. This is on the demand side. Low cost natural gas is displacing number 3 & 4 heating oil in big buildings all over the northeast. Testing is underway for natural gas trains. And of course natural gas trucks and buses —especially for local delivery —are displacing gasoline and diesel all over the country. These four areas contribute fully 40% of oil demand. Chop that out of demand and oil prices tumble further down. But even that is not the end of it. Electric cars are going to happen. The big battery factory in Nevada is under construction. Electric cars at 35k will ship in 2018 or there abouts. They will cause an even greater crack heard round the world than the current high end Teslas. By 2025 volumes —not just from Tesla —but also from many other car makers will start to cut into demand for oil in a big way.

The price of oil will crater.

This will cause an explosion in wealth around the world as low oil prices did in the 1990’s.

But even this is not the end to it.

The true 21st century technologies,the ones that collapse the cost of electricity to 1/4-1/10 the current lowest cost coal will start arriving in 2025-30. The most obvious of these are the portable thorium (lftr msr)reactors that will collapse the cost of electricity.

This will lead to another great explosion of wealth.

The last big explosion happens when cheap energy combines with better industrial processes to make desalinated sea water cheap enough for agriculture so that desalinated water can be piped 1000 miles inland from any coast to feed field crops of any variety. This will turn the world’s deserts green and double the size of the habitable planet.

This will in turn create the capital base for space mining and colonization.

The majority of representatives from both parties answer not to We The People or to OUR Constitution but to oligarchs who pay to get them elected. In the long run these representatives do what they are told to d by the ones they have accepted as their masters. Those masters answer to the demon which feeds their debaucheries. America is now beyond saving even with an effort at a Constitutional Convention. I happen to believe that IF God grants the US one last chance to turn from the wickedness at its heart it will come through the voices of those who have lawfully become our fellow Americans, naturalized citizens who were pissed upon by the current drug-addled sexual degenerate soiling the White House bathrooms. One can hope that those naturalized Americans will allow an outrage to rise to the surface and be heard by the complacent foolish non-voting Americans who are being fed the bread and circuses routine which diverts them from reality.

Look at how many freepers have fallen into the gossip trap which is the Cosby issue, diverting their anger from the lawless behavior of obamaroid and thus removing the pressure that might otherwise raise a wave for an Article V action! Diversion is the hallmark of evil's work when destroying a people.

CA doesn’t actually lead the way for the whole country very often. They like to think they do, but usually they don’t. “All of New England” is less than half the land mass and population of CA. Jersey is again just one state. On the other side there’s Texas and the Bible Belt and the Farm Belt. Certain areas run different patterns, but they generally counter balance each other. There’s a reason presidential elections are actually fought in the “swing states” and you haven’t mentioned any of them. It’s that 1/3 divide, some states are mostly conservatives, some states are mostly libs, some states are mostly mushy. The mushy states decide elections, sometimes the mush has so much momentum non-swing states flip (like when Dole lost AZ), but most of the time those states don’t move. But the country does, but the country’s change is largely a pendulum, because that mushy middle is primarily defined by being fed up. And as long as one side can be defined as being “in charge” that mushy middle will always be in the process of going the other way.

It’s like clockwork, the pattern is easy to spot. And the pattern gets more solid the closer you move to now in history. Because the closer to now you get the more the 2 party system is entrenched, and the more there’s 1 side “in charge” and 1 side the mushy middle is moving towards.

If one takes a state the size of California one can hardly be accused of cherry picking, certainly of one takes all of New England to add to California one can hardly be accused of cherry picking. Now add New Jersey. Finally, add New York.

The problem from your point of view in talking about swing states is that there are ever fewer of them as more and more states move into the blue column because of demographics.

As to the idea that there is a mushy middle, roughly 1/3, which decides elections and that this has ever been so and ever will be so deserves tight scrutiny. First, you refer to our history going back to the Civil War. I reply that the Irish got off the boats during the Civil War and turned the northern coastal cities Democrat and tended to keep them that way until the next demographic wave, Jews and Italians for the most part, confirmed the Democrat hold on cities. Finally, the demographic wave of African-Americans in World War I and especially in World War II and thereafter nailed the voting booth door shut to Republicans. The lock on those northern cities has occasionally been picked but the trend is indisputable and durable. There is no mushy middle in Massachusetts, California, Rhode Island, Maryland etc. These states will occasionally behave eccentrically as Maryland recently did but the pattern holds.

The idea that there will always be a cyclical movement back and forth between Republicans and Democrats has some validity by the nature of our federal system. Where you have a winner take all situation, as you do in the American elections, third parties are discouraged as one of the two parties will move to absorb a burgeoning rival. So that has tended over the centuries to keep America a two-party system as opposed to the experience in Europe with parliamentary democracies. However, a two-party system simply breaks down if the demographics compel it as it has so many times in America. We are now seeing the winner take all election statewide in many American states dominated by the cities. This is purely a demographic result. It may change but there is nothing before us to suggest that it will.

There is, however, plenty of serious data which I sent to you describing the change in the racial makeup of this country by 2050. That can be dismissed with conclusionary language, but I don't find that persuasive.

Yours is an extremely interesting reply and a fascinating futuristic piece.

I cannot judge from a technological point of view whether your predictions will prove out but certainly we agree that the changes brought about by technology, especially in the energy space but also in the digital world will be profound. I have pointed out the analogies to the sweeping changes imposed on the crofters, the tenant farmers of Ireland, the Luddites by the Industrial Revolution.

Changes of some sort of another are coming and they are coming rapidly the question for conservatives is, how do we accommodate this change in liberty? If conservatives are not in the forefront of protecting liberty, the left will exploit the changes to impose tyranny. The model against which we must work is the global warming fraud which the left uses to reshape society entirely. They will try the same when real technological change comes. They are trying to control the Internet now, for example.

I have more confidence in James Madison understanding the digital revolution and the energy revolution and their implications for liberty than I do every bureaucrat in Washington.

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