[Jet Jaguar]

Taniel ‏@Taniel 1h1 hour ago 10556 ballots counted in Alaska: #AKSen: Sullivan expands lead by 637 votes, to 8784. #AKGov Parnell cuts deficit by 146 votes, to 3019.

[Clump]

With 10,000 more votes counted AND a Sullivan net gain, I’d say the odds of a comeback are dramatically smaller than they were to begin with for BigItch.
Feelin’ good!

[CatOwner]

"Taniel ‏@Taniel 1h1 hour ago 10556 ballots counted in Alaska"

Based on that, Sullivan received 50.2% of these additional ballots, Begish 44.2%, and the remaining candidates 5.6%. The latter is consistent with what occurred on Election Day. Just having those votes go to 3rd party candidates reduces the number from which Begish can win.

If there are 30,000 ballots to count, expect about 1,700 of those to go 3rd party. That would leave about 28,300 between Sullivan and Begish. Even if Sullivan received only 40% of the additional 30,000 ballots (well below his Election Day numbers and the additional 10,000 ballots today), we would still win by 3,500. 45% of the additional 30,000 ballots would yield a 6,000 vote win for Sullivan.