Based on that, Sullivan received 50.2% of these additional ballots, Begish 44.2%, and the remaining candidates 5.6%. The latter is consistent with what occurred on Election Day. Just having those votes go to 3rd party candidates reduces the number from which Begish can win.
If there are 30,000 ballots to count, expect about 1,700 of those to go 3rd party. That would leave about 28,300 between Sullivan and Begish. Even if Sullivan received only 40% of the additional 30,000 ballots (well below his Election Day numbers and the additional 10,000 ballots today), we would still win by 3,500. 45% of the additional 30,000 ballots would yield a 6,000 vote win for Sullivan.
Election Journal @electionjournal 2m2 minutes ago Sullivan's margin increasing. Path to victory for Begich dimishing rapidly. #AKSEN 0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite