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North Carolina, is the tossup

I believe we will give Hagan the boot. I don't understand the confidence given in her chances of retaining her seat.

My reasoning is this, though NC briefly flipped blue for the '08 Obama wave election, we are still primarily Republican leaning state. Republicans have the governorship, and both state houses, and the other US senator is Republican. In '12, even with the huge turnout and GOTV effort by the Dems with Obama at the head of the ticket when he was more popular than he is now, the state went for Romney. Hagan would never have been elected if it wasn't for the coattails of Obama in that huge wave. I don't see why people think that, now that we have a chance to replace her, we won't. She has never polled remotely near 50% (usually around 44 %).

The only way I see her keeping her seat is if the GOTV effort here is way better than it was in '12 (and I find that hard to believe given that Obama's not on the ticket).

I hope my thinking is right.