FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast (up to 68.5% - season high)

FiveThirtyEight.com ^ | 10/31/2014 | Nate Silver

[Eccl 10:2]

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model combines hundreds of opinion polls with historical and demographic information to calculate odds for each Senate race. We estimate the probability that each party will win control of the Senate by running those odds through thousands of simulations. The forecast is updated regularly.

[Lisbon1940]

Not looking good for Childers.

[Drango]

NYSlimes just added (10/31) NC and Kay Hagen to the “tossup” category.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/comparisons.html

[Eccl 10:2]

I know what Cochran did to get the nomination this time was despicable. But we must hold this seat. Please tell your friends to hold their noses and GOTV for Cochran.

Let’s win the Senate, and go on Cruz control!

We will deal with Cochran later.

[grania]

If they could be sure of the majority, they should vote for Childers. If the Senate majority is in doubt, they have a tough moral decision to make. Cochran in this case is the greater evil, with that disgusting primary campaign.

JMHO

[Eccl 10:2]

Completely agree. I would love to see Cochran get fully embarrassed over what he did. But I would love to see us get the Senate majority more. I love the poll trends, but I absolutely do not underestimate the ability of the other party to go to ANY length to steal the key elections.

[gogeo]

Nate Silver nailed it last election.

[gogeo]

That’s powerful.

[Scoutmaster]

I agree, so I leaped into the innerwebz.

The man in the video is Elbert Guillory, a Louisiana attorney and member of the Louisiana State Senate. He and I share a birthday, but he was born in 1944. A registered Republican, but not always so. Interesting background.

A Republican who became a Democrat to run as a candidate for the Louisiana statehouse. In 2013, he switched his party affiliation back to Republican on the day he received a Frederick Douglass award.

Raised by divorced parents. Father, a Roman Catholic and a bootlegger. Mother, a Baptist and school teacher. Navy vet. Aspired to be a physician. Attended a Baptist theology school but was never ordained. Is now a Roman Catholic. Expelled from historically black Southern University because he wrote an editorial for the school newspaper referring to Dem US Senator (LA) Allen Ellender as a "lunatic". B.A. from historically black historically black Norfolk State University. J.D. from Rutgers.

The Free At Last PAC website contains more of his videos.

I'll look for the one I saw.

[txhurl]

Will Elbert Guillory be the one to lead his people off the plantation?

[Scoutmaster]

On his own, no, IMHO. He has no stage and he is too old. I imagine his PAC will remain as anonymous as it was when I was introduced to it.

What influence do you think Guillory could have a with a national mic and stage for a couple of years?

[Scoutmaster]

I'm sorry. I thought I was responding to you on the "Why I Am A Republican" - POWERFUL video by Black State Senator thread, where I shared an Elbert Guillory video.

That video. That's the Guillory video you should watch.

As Freeper bigboy wrote after viewing it: "Speechless. Nothing more can be said."

[txhurl]

He was just on Neil Cavuto, very impressive.

[Scoutmaster]

I can imagine. I determined that I was simply slow to the draw. Guillory's been around since he changed parties. Wherever he was, I wasn't.

I left links to some additional Guillory speeches and interviews at the Why Am I A Republican thread.

[txhurl]

I like Cavuto personally, but that guy is a flaming RINO. He had Cornyn on right after Guillory and they were practically undressing each other, Cornyn telling his usual no-really-i’m-a-conservative-and-mcconnell-will-be-a-great-majority-leader with Cavuto just smiling and nodding. Must be an Amnesty guy.