For House GOP, a Wave … Or a Trickle?

Roll Call Politics ^ | October 20, 2014 | Abby Livingston

[Clintonfatigued]

House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.

Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.

“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.

Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front are dragging down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.

But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.

Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:

[fieldmarshaldj]

Unfortunately, polling I saw showed Ige leading Aiona for Governor. Dems cleaning out their unpopular incumbent eliminated Aiona’s advantage. I still personally favor cutting Hawaii loose as a state (and frankly, with what Alaska sends to DC, them as well).

[Impy]

Yeah I saw that, I bet Ige wins with under 50%, we can thank that little *itch Mufi for splitting the vote. I think his fellow rats put him up to it, Ross Peroting his becoming a major problem, our side needs to fund the Green Party.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Absent Mufi, it still might have a similar outcome. It’s curious that Ige was trailing Aiona (before the primary) by an even wider margin than Abercrombie. Probably chalk it up to not knowing him. Now he’s apparently “known” and has made up the difference.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Wow! Now I am on board. Did you get the note from our fearless leader?:

“We’ve got to end this month with a big bang.

It’s the GOP October Ad Blitz and we must make sure it’s fully funded, Freeper.

To date, 6,642 grassroots supporters have stepped up with a contribution — we’re almost to the 7,000 goal.

We really need this. Can you help once more?

www.nrcc.org/GOP-ad-blitz

Washington Democrats aren’t giving up.

Neither am I. And neither should you.

The deadline is midnight tonight. Let’s close out October with a big ad blitz to drive voters to the polls for our great slate of candidates.

This is a big deal with just a few days left, Peter. So I’ve promised the NRCC that I will TRIPLE MATCH every donation we receive before the midnight tonight.

Here’s your express link to make an instant donation:

GOP October Ad Blitz Link:
www.nrcc.org/final-ad-deadline

Thank you for your support of the conservative cause.”

John Boehner

[Impy]

The NRCC knows you’re a freeper?

[campaignPete R-CT]

my gnome slipped that in there for entertainment porpoises.

[Impy]

So I’m guessing you ain’t giving any, eh? But Boner’s gonna TRIPLE MATCH it!

[Clintonfatigued]

It would be great to elect a Republican (even a moderate one) in a district that voted 70% for Obama. I hope we win this district.

[Impy]

Polling, polling on the river

Civil Beat poll, HI-1 tied at 45% a piece.

NJ CD-2 (Stockton College): Frank LoBiondo (R) 53%, Bill Hughes (D) 34%.

2nd poll to show LoBi far out in front, a poll some weeks ago showing him in danger seems to have been off base.

Siena polls

NY CD-24 John Katko (R) 52%, Dan Maffei (D) 42%.

I say what what!!

CD-21

Stefanik 50 (R), Woolf 32 (D), Funiciello 11 (Green)

Loras College Polls

IA-1

Blum 44% (R), Murphy 42% (D)

IA-2

Young (R) 46% , Appel (D) 44%

Some naughty polls

“DFM Research” (Who?) Poll in NE-2

State Sen. Brad Ashford (D) 46%, Lee Terry (R inc.) 41%.

BYU Poll UT-4

Doug Owens (D) 46%, Mia Love (R) 42%, Jim Vein (L) 4%, Collin Simonsen (C) 1%, Tim Aalders (IAP) 1%.

Only poll to have OWENS ahead, I don’t buy it

Here’s their poll of UT-2

Chris Stewart (R) 43%, Luz Robles (D) 37%, Shaun McCausland (C) 3%, Bill Barron (I) 1%.

Marxist State Sen. Luz Robles down only 6? I think not.

An alleged Republican poll has AZ-2

Barber 48% (D), McSally 46% (R)

New England College Poll has NH Governor TIED at 47% all, first poll to not have HASSAN (D) ahead, an outlier? Could the GOP get the clean sweep in the Granite state?

Same people have KusterD up by 7 over Garcia (R), Gunita up 6 over Che-Porter, and Scotty Brown up 48-47% in the Senate race.