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Washington Post's election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate.
WAPO ^ | October 10, 2014 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 10/11/2014 4:29:39 AM PDT by Din Maker

The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; polls; senateraces
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To: Din Maker
The GOP will still win control of the Senate. But, it would make about 150,000 Tea Party/True Conservatives very happy. The ones whose votes were disenfranchised by Thad Cockroach and his Black Democrats who crossed over in the Run-off and voted for him; even though they had already voted in the Dem Primary.

My thoughts too - hate the thought of voting for a Dim, but will have to monitor polls, etc., up to the day of the elections to see if I think it is worth the risk.

From a couple other responses to my post, I find it amusing that some of the same folks, who allowed Obama a second term because they couldn't vote for Romney, have been telling me what a fool I am for considering voting against a Repub senator - I guess their perspective/principles change when it's not themselves they're looking at.

21 posted on 10/11/2014 4:58:59 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: rrrod

Yesterday on my local radio station in NC I heard a beautiful story:
“Today is the last day you can register to vote in November’s election.”

Because of the reforms passed by Tillis and our new Republican legislature we no longer have same day registration and voting. There is also drastically reduced early voting. And they got rid of (I believe) the right to vote outside your precinct on election day.

So I’m not as down on Tillis as most North Carolinians. And a few days ago a court let these reforms stand. So Hagan and the Democrats just lost a gigantic advantage they had in 08 and 12.


22 posted on 10/11/2014 4:59:09 AM PDT by Mangia E Statti Zitto
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To: trebb

I think Silver whom had the last few elections dead on has his models at about a 59% chance that the Repubs take the Senate. That seems about right to me with Dem election fraud.


23 posted on 10/11/2014 5:04:22 AM PDT by DAC21
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To: trebb
....my quandary is whether I just don't vote for him or if I actually vote for the Dim. This kind of treachery has to be stopped.

From what I've picked up on, a huge chunk of Chris McDaniel's Primary voters are absolutely NOT voting for Thad Cockroach. Most say they're leaving that race blank on the ballot. Many say they're writing-in McDaniels (even though the votes won't be counted) and more than you can imagine say they're voting for the Dem because he is an old-style, Truman Democrat. He is Pro-Life, Pro-Second Amendment, ANTI-Amnesty and ANTI-Faggot Marriage.
24 posted on 10/11/2014 5:04:38 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

I live in the Charlotte, NC area and in my opinion, Tillis will win. Along with the anti-Obama stench hanging over her, Hagan also had a horrible debate performance this week. I think Tillis will win rather handily.


25 posted on 10/11/2014 5:10:34 AM PDT by Free America52 (The White guys are getting pissed off. We beat Hitler Hirohito and Krushchev. Obama will be easy.)
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To: Alas Babylon!
I don’t see how you can find Landrieu winning Louisiana. She’s in trouble, and has been for some time.

The day I saw the pic of her manning the beer keg spout at the LSU tailgate party, I knew your statement was true.

Those kind of tactics don't fare well with North Lousiana Baptists, say anywhere north of Ville Platte.

26 posted on 10/11/2014 5:12:53 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Everything I needed to know about Islam was written on 11 Sep 2001)
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To: C. Edmund Wright; All

The GOP could lose MS and still win control of the Senate. The Democrats in MS are absolutely giddy over this race They are flying extremely stealth under the radar. They are running a Conservative Democrat. (Yes, there are still many of them in the South.) And with a Dem base that is energized, they are wooing the McDaniel supporters like crazy. They feel that with them getting a majority of McDaniel’s voters and many of them staying home or not voting in the Senate Race, that they might have a chance to win a Senate Seat in MS for the first time in ages. Watch closely.....


27 posted on 10/11/2014 5:15:20 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER
Okay, so that is how the Conservative Purists will react.

Now, how will the RATS and Obola react?

28 posted on 10/11/2014 5:15:33 AM PDT by Redleg Duke ("Madison, Wisconsin is 30 square miles surrounded by reality.", L. S. Dryfusbutcher)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

I do recall that law...and its great but how in the world did Tillis melt away?

I read a story here about the worst political consultant in the world...guy runs Tillis’s campaign. What’s going on?

Yrs ago I was involved with the NCGOP...


29 posted on 10/11/2014 5:17:00 AM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: Free America52

I didn’t watch the Hagan/Tillis debates, but listened to excerpts and analysis, and I couldn’t believe her performance!

First, does she have a speech impediment? She sounds like Elmer Fudd!

Second, what’s up with the personal attacks? She called Tillis spineless, among other things.

Third, the fact that she skipped committee meetings on Isis is starting to break though her media firewall.


30 posted on 10/11/2014 5:17:57 AM PDT by Mangia E Statti Zitto
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To: trebb

How would a Cochran defeat in MS affect things?
++++
It could cost us the Senate majority. Cochran is scum be he’s our scum. Time to hold your nose and push the GOP button in Mississippi.


31 posted on 10/11/2014 5:18:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: bert

Except that it’s easier to replace a Liberal than it is a Rino.


32 posted on 10/11/2014 5:21:51 AM PDT by Usagi_yo (Criticize, marginalize, demonize, criminalize.)
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To: rrrod

He melted away because he listened to the idiots Rove and Jeb Bush and refused to attack Hagan’s record. Then the legislature was in session all summer and the liberal media hammered away on him every day. Personally, I don’t think he was ever as unpopular as the lamestream press was saying. He was just unknown. Believe it or not, most people are just now starting to pay attention, and some super PACS have come in with some very tough anti-Hagan ads. Hagan is reduced to trying to scare us with the Koch brothers.


33 posted on 10/11/2014 5:24:56 AM PDT by Mangia E Statti Zitto
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To: Din Maker
The GOP could lose MS and still win control of the Senate. The Democrats in MS are absolutely giddy over this race They are flying extremely stealth under the radar. They are running a Conservative Democrat. (Yes, there are still many of them in the South.) And with a Dem base that is energized, they are wooing the McDaniel supporters like crazy. They feel that with them getting a majority of McDaniel’s voters and many of them staying home or not voting in the Senate Race, that they might have a chance to win a Senate Seat in MS for the first time in ages. Watch closely.....

Yes, the GOP could still win the Senate without Mississippi - but they could also LOSE the Senate because of MS. And you say they are running a conservative Democrat. There's really no such thing - in this regard. Regardless of what this particular Democrat believes, his victory will empower Harry Reid and Barack Obama - so there's no way a Democrat has any conservative impact in reality.

34 posted on 10/11/2014 5:28:36 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: Alas Babylon!

I agree Landrieu is in trouble. But, consider the following:

1. Bill Cassidy is not an exciting candidate and has “Moderate Republican” leanings. He’s a RINO with a phony smile, no fire in his belly and no clear distinction of issues between her and him.

2. The Dem ground game is unbelievable. Remember 2012. Romney had huge crowds; Obama had small crowds. But, the crowds showed up on Election Day. Some people had to stand in line for 3 hours to vote.

3. The Landrieu name and machine is still powerful in LA. Many Republicans (RINOs) are supporting Mary Landrieu.

4. The local, Good Ol’ Boy networks, that can help pull their preferred candidate to victory in a close Election, have carried over from the Huey Long days, are still alive and well in LA. And they are not Republicans

I grew up, in Texas, a stone’s throw from LA. I live 15 miles from LA today. I know LA politics and I’m not counting her out until the final votes are counted. Just saying.


35 posted on 10/11/2014 5:32:31 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: trebb

Sometimes trebb, you have to throw caution to the wind, vote your heart and let whatever happens....happen. On top of his, and Haley Barbours, antics in the Primary Run-off, I could NEVER vote for a low-life p.o.s. like Thad Cochran who tucked his wife away in a Nursing Home so he’d more free to cavort with his D.C. girlfriend.


36 posted on 10/11/2014 5:39:44 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

That’s definitely good news.


37 posted on 10/11/2014 5:40:51 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: InterceptPoint; All
Time to hold your nose and push the GOP button in Mississippi.

We've done that for the last two decades and what has it gotten us? Just more "do-nothing", spineless RINOs who hate us and vow to "crush" us wherever they find us. Asking me to hold my nose and vote for that low-life, p.o.s. Thad Cochran is like asking me to "hold my nose" and ask a judge to free a scumbag who molested my child. Somebody, sometime has got to have the ba**s to say: "ENOUGH! You have used me, accused me and abused me for the last time. Now, paybacks are hell." AND..........

BTW, we can lose Thad Cockroach and STILL have a Senate Majority so don't come back at me with that "I must love Harry Reid" crap.
38 posted on 10/11/2014 5:52:34 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Din Maker

Did they factor in the 110% voter turn out in the hood?


39 posted on 10/11/2014 5:53:51 AM PDT by The Toll
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To: C. Edmund Wright

there’s no way a Democrat has any conservative impact in reality.
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Well, then, I say to you my friend, the same goes for RINOs.


40 posted on 10/11/2014 5:55:44 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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