Posted on 10/11/2014 4:29:39 AM PDT by Din Maker
The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
My thoughts too - hate the thought of voting for a Dim, but will have to monitor polls, etc., up to the day of the elections to see if I think it is worth the risk.
From a couple other responses to my post, I find it amusing that some of the same folks, who allowed Obama a second term because they couldn't vote for Romney, have been telling me what a fool I am for considering voting against a Repub senator - I guess their perspective/principles change when it's not themselves they're looking at.
Yesterday on my local radio station in NC I heard a beautiful story:
“Today is the last day you can register to vote in November’s election.”
Because of the reforms passed by Tillis and our new Republican legislature we no longer have same day registration and voting. There is also drastically reduced early voting. And they got rid of (I believe) the right to vote outside your precinct on election day.
So I’m not as down on Tillis as most North Carolinians. And a few days ago a court let these reforms stand. So Hagan and the Democrats just lost a gigantic advantage they had in 08 and 12.
I think Silver whom had the last few elections dead on has his models at about a 59% chance that the Repubs take the Senate. That seems about right to me with Dem election fraud.
I live in the Charlotte, NC area and in my opinion, Tillis will win. Along with the anti-Obama stench hanging over her, Hagan also had a horrible debate performance this week. I think Tillis will win rather handily.
The day I saw the pic of her manning the beer keg spout at the LSU tailgate party, I knew your statement was true.
Those kind of tactics don't fare well with North Lousiana Baptists, say anywhere north of Ville Platte.
The GOP could lose MS and still win control of the Senate. The Democrats in MS are absolutely giddy over this race They are flying extremely stealth under the radar. They are running a Conservative Democrat. (Yes, there are still many of them in the South.) And with a Dem base that is energized, they are wooing the McDaniel supporters like crazy. They feel that with them getting a majority of McDaniel’s voters and many of them staying home or not voting in the Senate Race, that they might have a chance to win a Senate Seat in MS for the first time in ages. Watch closely.....
Now, how will the RATS and Obola react?
I do recall that law...and its great but how in the world did Tillis melt away?
I read a story here about the worst political consultant in the world...guy runs Tillis’s campaign. What’s going on?
Yrs ago I was involved with the NCGOP...
I didn’t watch the Hagan/Tillis debates, but listened to excerpts and analysis, and I couldn’t believe her performance!
First, does she have a speech impediment? She sounds like Elmer Fudd!
Second, what’s up with the personal attacks? She called Tillis spineless, among other things.
Third, the fact that she skipped committee meetings on Isis is starting to break though her media firewall.
How would a Cochran defeat in MS affect things?
++++
It could cost us the Senate majority. Cochran is scum be he’s our scum. Time to hold your nose and push the GOP button in Mississippi.
Except that it’s easier to replace a Liberal than it is a Rino.
He melted away because he listened to the idiots Rove and Jeb Bush and refused to attack Hagan’s record. Then the legislature was in session all summer and the liberal media hammered away on him every day. Personally, I don’t think he was ever as unpopular as the lamestream press was saying. He was just unknown. Believe it or not, most people are just now starting to pay attention, and some super PACS have come in with some very tough anti-Hagan ads. Hagan is reduced to trying to scare us with the Koch brothers.
Yes, the GOP could still win the Senate without Mississippi - but they could also LOSE the Senate because of MS. And you say they are running a conservative Democrat. There's really no such thing - in this regard. Regardless of what this particular Democrat believes, his victory will empower Harry Reid and Barack Obama - so there's no way a Democrat has any conservative impact in reality.
I agree Landrieu is in trouble. But, consider the following:
1. Bill Cassidy is not an exciting candidate and has “Moderate Republican” leanings. He’s a RINO with a phony smile, no fire in his belly and no clear distinction of issues between her and him.
2. The Dem ground game is unbelievable. Remember 2012. Romney had huge crowds; Obama had small crowds. But, the crowds showed up on Election Day. Some people had to stand in line for 3 hours to vote.
3. The Landrieu name and machine is still powerful in LA. Many Republicans (RINOs) are supporting Mary Landrieu.
4. The local, Good Ol’ Boy networks, that can help pull their preferred candidate to victory in a close Election, have carried over from the Huey Long days, are still alive and well in LA. And they are not Republicans
I grew up, in Texas, a stone’s throw from LA. I live 15 miles from LA today. I know LA politics and I’m not counting her out until the final votes are counted. Just saying.
Sometimes trebb, you have to throw caution to the wind, vote your heart and let whatever happens....happen. On top of his, and Haley Barbours, antics in the Primary Run-off, I could NEVER vote for a low-life p.o.s. like Thad Cochran who tucked his wife away in a Nursing Home so he’d more free to cavort with his D.C. girlfriend.
That’s definitely good news.
Did they factor in the 110% voter turn out in the hood?
there’s no way a Democrat has any conservative impact in reality.
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Well, then, I say to you my friend, the same goes for RINOs.
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