Nice work.
bttt
‘World losing battle with Ebola’ – Doctors Without Borders Chief.
24 minute long interview...Info about Liberia and the dramatic increase in number of cases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EVr7udRkpc
Ball park estimates are often helpful.
That’s interesting.
I wonder what is being done in countries that have a handle on this as opposed to those that don’t.
Nice stuff.
But that’s not how outbreaks work. (just kidding. Really. I read paragraph 1.)
Interesting. Thanks. Health/life BUMP!
"Liberia, together with the other hard-hit countries, namely Guinea and Sierra Leone, is experiencing a phenomenon never before seen in any previous Ebola outbreak. As soon as a new Ebola treatment facility is opened, it immediately fills to overflowing with patients, pointing to a large but previously invisible caseload."
Clearly your comment on unreported cases is well-supported by the evidence.
Also, WHO has not released a formal Global Alert and Response "Disease Outbreak News: Ebola Virus Disease" with September data for West Africa, just for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Previous updates came at least weekly and usually more ferequently. http://who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/. I am not sure what this means, but I suspect it means something.
How has your model changed since the 1.0 projection back on the 15th? I see the 2.1 model’s DTR has dramatically increased and the projected number of cases has dramatically decreased, or nearly half the number of projected cases for a 3.5x increase in DTR.