How has your model changed since the 1.0 projection back on the 15th? I see the 2.1 model’s DTR has dramatically increased and the projected number of cases has dramatically decreased, or nearly half the number of projected cases for a 3.5x increase in DTR.
I outlined the changes in the following post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3205753/posts.