Posted on 09/17/2014 5:15:54 AM PDT by cotton1706
Hat tip to our friend Mike Flynn of Breitbart for his column noting that top political odds maker Nate Silver has lowered his forecast for a GOP takeover of the Senate.
Two weeks ago, noted Flynn, Silver estimated the GOP had a 64% chance of winning a Senate majority. On Tuesday, Silver lowered his estimate to 55%. The landscape still favors the GOP, says Flynn, but the trend-lines are ominous.
As Mike Flynn and others, including CHQ Chairman Richard A. Viguerie, have noted “the GOP could take the majority by simply winning Senate races in states carried by Mitt Romney.” While such an outcome would be enough to take control of the Senate, it certainly wouldn't constitute a Republican wave. It would simply “revert the partisan make-up of Congress to the political mean,” as Mike Flynn put it. Republicans would have control, but it wouldn't have won any new political ground.
One of the trends that Silver emphasized in his analysis (and that Flynn picked-up on) is the enormous cash disparity enjoyed by Democratic candidates. In North Carolina, for example, incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagen has over $8 million cash in the bank, against her GOP opponent's $1.5 million. The national campaign arms of the Democrats routinely raise more money than their Republican counter-parts.
Now here’s the key point in Flynn’s article: “Republicans have struggled, in particular, with small-dollar donors. These donations represent the activism of base voters, the life-blood of a party. For a year and a half, Republicans in Washington, abetted by their business allies, assailed conservatives privately and in the press.” Establishment GOP leaders regularly made it clear that they would assert themselves in primaries to ensure they had the “best candidates” to take on Democrats in the general election.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativehq.com ...
"It was forgotten said Flynn that Republicans had largely accomplished this goal in 2012, with little success. Establishment candidates in Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin and Connecticut all met humiliating defeats. (We could add Florida, Hawaii and New Mexico, but you get the point.)"
The WaPo (fwiw) released a story this a.m. saying the dems now have a 51% chance of holding the Senate.
No surprise. The earlier GOP surge is over, and this will settle at no more than a +4 gain for the GOP. If Roberts (KS) goes down, as very well may be the case, make it +3.
Some year they might learn when they ram “establishment” RINO’s down our throats, the base sits it out on election day. Appears this year will not be that year though...
As it gets closer to the election the Compost’s polls will magically show the Democrats doing better and better.
GOP...snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
They are just starting their strategy to make voter fraud look like it really was not fraud. They pulled this off in 2012 and looks like they will do it again because it worked.
Iwwas waiting for the neck and neck “race” to start. And here it is, all prepped and being media delivered.
I hope we get 51 or more. Seeing Reid dispatched of his office would be gratifying after the disgusting damage he’s done to our nation for the past eight years. Other than that, I could not be less motivated this cycle. The GOP thinks it can limp it’s way to majority with no purpose, no ideas, and by angering their core voters. Frankly, I have zero motivation to give them power.
I have no Senate race in my home state, so this is strictly a spectator election. I will give no money and let the chips fall.
The GOP wizards get to sleep in the beds they made this cycle. So far, I see more lackluster and uninspired campaigns for Senate this cycle like we saw from the party smarties in 2012. They think bland and boring wins, for some reason. Ironically, it is Mitch McConnell who is the only one I’ve seen running an aggressive campaign.
Can anyone identify the GOP’s vision for America, as in how it would see to improving this country’s economy and its standing on the international stage? I have yet to hear anything, other than “Obama’s bad, so vote for us.”
The GOP is trying to run out the clock by not saying anything. Effectively they are trying to win by claiming that they are better than the Democrats because.... they have a different name.
The GOP stands for nothing. That is why they are destined to become extinct.
And as many others have pointed out, the GOPe has excluded conservatives, has given voters no positions to vote for, and seem genuinely content with the status quo.
Some weird data this morning: CO Gov down 10, Joni up 6, mittens is going to run when he just said 4 days ago on FNC that he wouldn’t and already has a candidate he’s going to back..
And that is precisely why the GOP's "wave" will die out at +4.
What’s the data re: the CO governor race? Beauprez is up by 10, or Hickenlooper?
Disregard my previous. Just saw it.. Quin has Beauprez up by 10. Interesting.
Does the GOPe really care? They seem quite comfortable as the token opposition and campaign much more ferociously against conservatives than Democrats.
I am going with your number again. A pathetic +4. In such bad economic times, they should run the table.
Because the government schrools have succeeded. After having their heads stuffed with leftist propaganda, after having killed 58 million of their own babies, the population itself has tipped over the edge. Only a minority of Americans want to be free, live in a family with a mother and a father and children, read a book now and then, or think.
The Left has had a plan to destroy Christian civilization since the 14th Century, and the U.S. Constitution since 1787. The Right has had no plan to preserve either.
Thanks.
They should, and would've in a more sane era... but this country's in a rather neurotic place now.
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