I’ve been following these models very closely. And it’s not any kind of propaganda.
Even though all national polls show Democrats on the ropes (Right track, Obama approval, economy, generic ballot, etc)
In these head to head races the Democrat candidates are pretty good liars. And the electorate is pretty gullible.
They are all pretending to be anti Obama despite a voting record. All are dodging Obamacare. And Repubs are generally running mealy mouth GOPe campaigns.
Go to RealClear. Each race is a dead heat. The Dems are not fading like everyone expected.
The GOP is only guaranteed to pick up 3 seats right now (MT, WV, SD). Just like they were in the spring.
Of course, they could win another 7-8 or win zip. They are that close.
Over the summer, the GOP locked up none of the races.
And on top of that Kansas has gone from a GOP lock to a tossup. North Carolina has flipped slightly to Dems over past couple of weeks. Virginia, Minnesota, and Oregon never came into play like many had hoped. Colorado might be a tossup but still leans consistently Dem. Michigan is once again a pipe dream. The only race that has moved in a positive direction to the GOP is NH.
Still two months to go, though. This is when the voters start paying attention.
When do we start the pool? I’m saying it’s a +1 night. Maybe +2. Flipping more than that many Senate seats is tough without a national movement.
Here in Louisiana, Cassidy is still running his squishy ads. He does very gently talk about immigration, but he is evidently unaware of Landrieu’s record on guns, Obamacare, Keystone pipeline, in short, the Democrat leftist agenda. I noticed he embedded Landrieu’s vote FOR Obama’s executive action on immigration in a lot of verbiage. That should deserve an ad by itself. Now, she running to his right on immigration, believe or not. If he thinks he is keeping his powder dry for the run off, he may not be there.
And, if I may add to your Post #54: Anyone who thinks the “non-inspiring”, empty-suit, Bill Cassidy, with his phony, plastic smile, will dethrone Mary Landrieu in La is living in a pipe dream. Cassidy dude is a RINO through and though and the real Conservative, Rob Maness, is anathema to the GOPe. I say again; the GOP brought this on themselves.
They are all pretending to be anti Obama despite a voting record. All are dodging Obamacare. And Repubs are generally running mealy mouth GOPe campaigns.
You are absolutely correct. The one thing the GOP has in their control IS HOW THEY RUN THEIR CAMPAIGN. And your right, it is mealy mouthed. No attack ads against Obama and the dems, no attacks against Obamacare and amnesty, etc., no criticism at all and no plans.