Posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal
Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)
So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Meanwhile, Scott Brown ties it up in NH.
All this “poll” does is to make the republicans more determined to GOTV. Its not there on the other side.
That whole article, and the calculations within it, are total crap.
Their estimations is that, because in certain states, the chances of republicans winning are slightly less, but, the chances are still much higher than that of the democrats involved.
It’s like saying that, because Windows has lost a few thousand consumers, that Linux has a chance to become the number one laptop/desktop OS. VERY UNLIKELY!
Make voter fraud a capital offense, and watch the Democrat Party dissappear.
This is how they cheat and we all fall for it.
And you forgot what they did to us in Mississippi, potentially another loss. I have been rather negative on taking the Senate back, we have no unified tactics, strategies or ideas to run on, thank you Mitch. I have been saying for a while we either just win, 51/49, split and do the comity thing, or we loose 51/49 and it is an even bigger bog to get stuck in.
The bad news is we won't win 55 /45 to have a cushion for the losses in 16'.
I am so disgusted with the EGOP, and what is going on right now in this Country, regardless if we get the Senate, I don't think we make it...
Here in Wisconsin the republican base is defeated. Walker would lose if election was today. There is no wave.
State by state shows everything even in states we should win.
The stupid war on women meme has been brutally effective.
This year feels like 2012. Polls even all year then democrats break away closer to election time.
If the GOPe hadn’t nominated a bunch of RINO squishes, maybe it would be different
All useless a##wipes
I think it is very possible. The GOPe really screwed the pooch (and us) this primary season. Mail from the NRSC and NRCC goes directly into the trash.
I like your analogy, but, unfortunately, the GOP is LINUX, without the technical advantages.
The GOP should be far ahead, but Lucy is holding the ball again, Charlie.
Right. And three days ago Stuart Rothenberg said the GOP “was poised to make significant gains.”
I’ve been following these models very closely. And it’s not any kind of propaganda.
Even though all national polls show Democrats on the ropes (Right track, Obama approval, economy, generic ballot, etc)
In these head to head races the Democrat candidates are pretty good liars. And the electorate is pretty gullible.
They are all pretending to be anti Obama despite a voting record. All are dodging Obamacare. And Repubs are generally running mealy mouth GOPe campaigns.
Go to RealClear. Each race is a dead heat. The Dems are not fading like everyone expected.
The GOP is only guaranteed to pick up 3 seats right now (MT, WV, SD). Just like they were in the spring.
Of course, they could win another 7-8 or win zip. They are that close.
Over the summer, the GOP locked up none of the races.
And on top of that Kansas has gone from a GOP lock to a tossup. North Carolina has flipped slightly to Dems over past couple of weeks. Virginia, Minnesota, and Oregon never came into play like many had hoped. Colorado might be a tossup but still leans consistently Dem. Michigan is once again a pipe dream. The only race that has moved in a positive direction to the GOP is NH.
Still two months to go, though. This is when the voters start paying attention.
This shows how terminally sick this country is. It can’t be cured because a critical mass of its people are reprobate, covetous and unteachable.
The war on women has nothing to do with it! What’s the GOP message? The only coherent message they have sent this year has been “FU, base.”
They are less than pathetic. It’s time to change the party symbol from an elephant to the cowardly lion.
Unfortunately, cowardice doesn’t win elections.
It’s hard to get excited over politics any more. I feel so thoroughly impotent with these Republicans and this media. Hard to bet on a horse that has his butt forward in the gate.
My point as well, I mean crats or rats, what`s the difference?
When do we start the pool? I’m saying it’s a +1 night. Maybe +2. Flipping more than that many Senate seats is tough without a national movement.
Whistling past the graveyard.
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