Posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal
Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)
So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Cantor did not expect to lose his seat. He was genuinely surprised.
Are you saying TEA partiers and conservatives are just going to jettison politics two months later when it REALLY counts?
Nope. More good surprises coming.
And distortions like the following floating around the interwebs...
For Once A GOP Politician Tells The Truth
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2014/09/15/jack-kingston-do-nothing-blame-obama/
Anytime we run into a Democrat, remind them to vote on November 5th. We’ll have this in the bag.
Stop screwing over conservatives? Why in the world would they want to go against their core statist principles?
Sounds like psy ops to me. The Dems. only hope is to discourage Republicans into staying home and not voting.
Seems to me the GOPe is doing a bang-up job of that all by themselves.
Say what you want, but you have to fight to win, and wimps don’t inspire confidence.
I know it hard for most GOPe cheerleaders to remember, but there’s a big difference between a weak hand and a limp wrist!
I’m not sure how your response answers my questions. But if you think the Republican’s are going to win and actually do something good for America...then good for you.
I haven’t heard anything from the so called leaders about what they will actually be able to accomplish if they are in the majority in the Senate and the House.
I’m not looking for surprises...I’m looking for accomplishments. I’m looking for something positive to happen that will make our nation proud.
Not hearing anything from the jackasses in Washington DC that makes me proud.
NOTHING.
Only if they do WHAT THEY ALWAYS DO...CHEAT
I’d rate LA as one of the best chances to flip, along with Arkansas. Landrieu is facing too much headwind in a conservative state. Plus her scandals of residency and charter flights make it even tougher. I can’t see her pulling it out. But you are right. Cassidy is weak. His best asset in LA is the R after his name.
Many of the gop are a**es. However, if people vote for LIBs/DIMs for any office, they deserve what they get.
Of course it is possible. Even if this is correct, however, a 49% chance of winning is very good odds still - people still win the Lottery even though their chances of doing so are a fraction of a percent.
But it now looks like it’s already been moved to 50.1% GOP so this article by the Post is already outdated. They are constantly updating it.
You have indeed. It either is turns out to be correct, or turns out to be wrong...both have happened quite a few times. Remember in NH Shaheen was supposed to easily defeat Sununu in 2002? Didn’t happen, did it? Allard was supposed to lose to Strickland in CO. Didn’t happen. Chambliss was supposed to lose to Cleland in GA...the pundits were shocked...and certainly Sonny Perdue wasn’t supposed to win that governors race...pundits and news anchors were even more flabbergasted when that race was called. Things have also certainly gone the other way against us come election nights, too, when polls suggested otherwise leading up to the election.
The three things that changed: Colorado; Iowa; and Kansas
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Well, the RINOs (McConnell in KY, Cochran in MS, Graham in SC, Tillis in NC, Cassidy in LA and Karl Rove in Dunkin Donuts.....) brought it on themselves. Eff them.)
.......but after watching this POS Obama win not once but twice, I guess anything is possible..
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BINGO! Believe it.
I think it is very possible. The GOPe really screwed the pooch (and us) this primary season.
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Ya think?
Exactly!
Commie Chris is a dedicated Obamabot and Dem propagandist.
We are in for weeks of The Dems are having a big comeback.
The evil Val jar has already has issued her orders.
And, if I may add to your Post #54: Anyone who thinks the “non-inspiring”, empty-suit, Bill Cassidy, with his phony, plastic smile, will dethrone Mary Landrieu in La is living in a pipe dream. Cassidy dude is a RINO through and though and the real Conservative, Rob Maness, is anathema to the GOPe. I say again; the GOP brought this on themselves.
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