Posted on 09/15/2014 2:50:13 PM PDT by scouter
I wonder how many Chinese and Arabs fly to and from Africa?
Frightening.
A while ago, I put “30,000 dead by Jan 1 2015” on my wall at work. People thought I was crazy. I guess it turns out I’m an optimist.
I think that just as malaria has a worse DTR in some areas than others, Ebola is kinda the same way. Only with Malaria it is natural environment while with Ebola it’s the “civilization” environment. Just as women tend to be a natural firebreak to Aids (unless engaging in anal sex), civilization is a natural firebreak to Ebola.
Am I reading this correctly? You are projecting close to 5 Billion cases by the end of the next 12 months?
Prayers.
Great analysis...1 to 2 billion dead in a year based on current information is that correct?
Wow.......
Those are staggering numbers. I am praying...
You could place the spreadsheet on dropbox.com. It’s no charge. After upload there’s an option to click to get a url that you can give to others so that they do not have to signup with dropbox, makes sharing ez.
Political factors, such as the a mandated quarantine, bans on travel to affected areas, closing of borders/airports
Mutation of the virus which affect its ease of transmission or lethality
I think yours is high. A month ago when the spread rate was 5% increase per day, I was projecting 200,000 in 90 days. But the most recent week showed a spread rate of 3% which would put us at 69,000 by Dec 12th.
Basic formula that I’m using is:
Current Cases * (SpreadRate)^#DaysOut)
Still a very serious crisis. One that the WHO has been criminally negligent in responding to.
I think yours is high. A month ago when the spread rate was 5% increase per day, I was projecting 200,000 in 90 days. But the most recent week showed a spread rate of 3% which would put us at 69,000 by Dec 12th.
Basic formula that I’m using is:
Current Cases * (SpreadRate)^#DaysOut)
Still a very serious crisis. One that the WHO has been criminally negligent in responding to.
Only if the current Daily Transmission Rate holds that long and if the current reported numbers represent 75% of the true numbers. There are many factors that could increase (bad) or decrease (good) that rate.
In fact, I do not believe it will pan out that badly. There are many, many, things that will work together to lower the DTR. And a small change in the DTR can have a huge effect on the projections. But this is presented as a warning to those who are pooh-poohing the issue. The math doesn't lie.
And I'm glad that you picked up on the key word: projecting, not predicting.
Thanks for your summary. I appreciate the efforts.
Kind of a downer right before dinner though.
Thanks and Yikes!
The only other thing I would consider are the non-Ebola increased death rate.
It is to be expected that caregivers will be hit hard, and early. Follow on deaths would skyrocket. For example: cancer patients, cardiac, and other first responder issues that would normally be treated.
I would guess that mortality rate will tick up another 5-10% above norm because of this.
Don't you remember the good old days when you would read about something like this every few months or so?
Now, it is on a daily basis.
Before long it will be hourly.
PING
Don’t forget possible intentional spread...
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