Only if the current Daily Transmission Rate holds that long and if the current reported numbers represent 75% of the true numbers. There are many factors that could increase (bad) or decrease (good) that rate.
In fact, I do not believe it will pan out that badly. There are many, many, things that will work together to lower the DTR. And a small change in the DTR can have a huge effect on the projections. But this is presented as a warning to those who are pooh-poohing the issue. The math doesn't lie.
And I'm glad that you picked up on the key word: projecting, not predicting.
Hi Scouter,
I’ve been tracking based on the WHO reported numbers. I have the new cases doubling about every 25 to 30 days.
Reason for using their numbers is that they are the most conservative available, and you can apply whatever scaling factor ends up emerging to correct the underreporting.
Do you generally confirm a doubling of 25 to 30 days?
I have around 6000 confirmed cases by around Oct 1, then 12K Nov1, 24K Dec1, based on the WHO’s numbers only - no correction factor.