Scotland will “prosper” for around 20 years post independence. By prosper I mean oil money will keep us solvent. I expect our oil revenue will remain substantial enough for the next 20 years or so. As the oil money runs out public services will be cut and/or taxes will rise. We will become poorer.
Agreed. That’s going to happen here, in the U.S.A., too. There will be hundreds of millions of new vehicle drivers and air travelers in developing countries over the years to come, and manufacturing will, on balance, will also increase in those countries. Meanwhile, our real U.S. economy has shrunk horribly (propaganda aside).
We’ve already passed “peak oil.” That’s why our U.S. energy producers are pressing on with more expensive methods of production in the face of foreign threats.
Some of them are supporting the needed strategy with continuing higher fuel margins and prices here (about a dollar and a half above wholesale in the tourist area around me). It’s not a bad foreign policy under the circumstances. Better than a hasty run to war. The last time that I had a look, Russia needed about $101 (USD) per barrel of oil to break even.
There are several ways to use much less fuel without lowering the quality of life, though. More distributed production with less centralized production is one way. There are also other fuels. Hugh Piggot (Scotland, axial flux alternator) didn’t have all of the answers, but he did come up with one good answer of many. So did Wayne Keith (U.S., revival of wood gasification), and so do others.