IEO2014: World liquid fuels consumption to rise 38% by 2040

Oil & Gas Journal ^ | 09/09/2014 | OGJ editors

[thackney]

n the 2014 edition of its International Energy Outlook (IEO2014), the US Energy Information Administration projected world liquid fuels consumption to rise 38% by 2040. The agency also pointed out that world markets for petroleum and other liquid fuels have entered a period of dynamic change—in supply and demand.

“The potential for growth in demand for liquid fuels is focused on the emerging economies of China, India, and the Middle East, while liquid fuels demand in the US, Europe, and other regions with well-established oil markets seems to have peaked,” EIA said.

In countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, demand growth has moderated as key economies, including China, India, and Brazil, have seen slower economic growth and correspondingly slower growth in liquids demand compared with the past 2 decades.

Liquids consumption among OECD countries, which reached a peak of 50 million b/d in 2005, has generally been trending downward since that time, reflecting both slowed economic growth and rising energy efficiency in the transportation sector.

New supplies of oil from tight and shale resources, beginning in North America and, eventually, in other parts of the world, have raised optimism for significant new sources of global liquids. There is also hope that recent legislative changes in Mexico will reverse that country’s recent trend of slowly declining oil production.

Outside North America, the potential for large production increases in Brazil, Argentina, and elsewhere could help ensure the availability of liquid fuels supplies for many years, according to EIA’s forecast.

IEO2014 projections of future liquids balances include two broad categories: crude and lease condensate and other liquid fuels. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids), gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, kerogen (i.e., oil shale), and refinery gain.

As a result of new crude pipeline construction and crude pipeline flow reversals in the US, the wide spread between the West Texas Intermediate spot price and the North Sea Brent price eventually decreased in 2013 and 2014 from a high of about $30/bbl in 2011.

EIA expects the WTI-Brent spread to continue to decrease over time. The recent decision by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security to allow exports of some lease condensates after processing also has the potential to further reduce the spread between the Brent price and the price of domestic production streams.

Since July 2012, North Sea Brent prices have generally remained $100-115/bbl in nominal terms. Growing liquids supplies from the US and Canada has largely offset by supply disruptions in other oil-producing regions, notably in the Middle East and North Africa.

EIA estimates that unplanned crude oil production outages have averaged 2.7 million b/d over the past 2 years and generally have trended upward, from 1.8 million b/d in May 2012 to about 3.5 million b/d this past May. Libya and Iran, both members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as non-OPEC countries such as South Sudan and Syria have accounted for a sizeable portion of the unplanned outages.

“It is difficult to predict when the supplies may return, given the significant geopolitical difficulties faced by these producers. This adds considerable uncertainty to the mid-term and long-term projections,” EIA said.

[Red Badger]

Better get fracking now.............................

[Red Badger]

By then GTL should be a mature production technique..................

[thackney]

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2014
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/?src=home-b1
Release Date: September 9, 2014

While the three oil price cases represent a wide range of uncertainty in future markets, they do not capture all possible outcomes (Figure 1 and Table 1). Because EIA’s oil price paths represent market equilibrium between supply and demand, they do not show the price volatility that occurs over days, months, or years. As a frame of reference, over the past two decades oil price volatility within single years has averaged about 30%. Although that level of volatility could continue, the alternative oil price cases in IEO2014 assume smaller near-term price variation than in previous IEOs, because larger near-term price swings are expected to lead to market changes in supply or demand that would dampen price volatility.

[TexasGator]

“while liquid fuels demand in the US, Europe, and other regions with well-established oil markets seems to have peaked,” “

I was amazed to see how we have reduced our gas consumption in the last decade.

[BitWielder1]

If true, that is a sign of increasing living standard across the world.
I believe that's a good thing.
Of course, the Greens see it a threat to the environment so it must be stopped.

[familyop]

Consumption will rise. Net energy exporting nations will rise. The dollar will fall. The U.S.A. is not a net energy exporter.

[NormsRevenge]

I’ll be in my mid -80s.. I better get crackin’ before they come a’frackin’.

[thackney]

[NormsRevenge]

Too bad Tesla inspired technologies have been kikked to the curb, energy is just floating around for the taking.

I wonder why?

Maybe certain sheikdoms in the Middle East could enlighten us and not our pocketbooks.

[sergeantdave]

I believe that Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean Sea is coming on line now. That may provide more supplies for Europe.

What about Cyprus? I’ve read that the gas field there could be as much as 122 trillion cubic feet.

[thackney]

Keep in mind, this is liquid consumption, gasoline, diesel, etc.

[nascarnation]

The Chinese are gonna be the big hog at the trough of the middle east.

The sheikhs and muzzies are gonna love having a best customer with mafia business practices and 1.5 billion expendable people to enforce them.

Enjoy your chop suey, boys....with pork LOL.

[molson209]

World liquid fuels consumption to rise 38% by 2040 or we could be running on Water and AAA batteries

[thackney]

energy is just floating around for the taking

Keep dreaming. The world is a big place to believe no one would use such capabilities if it existed.

[Obadiah]

More fodder to bid up the price of Brent Crude.

[NormsRevenge]

Yeah but what did Tesla capture during some of his experiments? Moonbeams?

[NormsRevenge]

The reality is we need oil and all that goes with it to run a global economy engine. Solar or such will never deliver the punch needed to reliably keep the engine going.

[DannyTN]

We need to be building nuclear plants and lot of them, and preparing even more sites.

You can convert that electricity into liquid fuel. But not if you don't have the electricity in the first place.

[Don Corleone]

Not to worry, I’ll be 108 by then.