Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: UCANSEE2
You are assuming the virus will not mutate.

No, not at all. I presume one of the explanations for the episodic non-pandemic nature of Ebola is that it mutates frequently.

Just remember, though, that most mutations are harmful to the organism, and that mutations that both increase fitness AND confer increased lethality are very, very rare.

This is like the famously "inevitable" H5N1 mutation that has been "just around the corner" since 1997. Think of it as a slot machine with 18,959 windows (that's the number of base pairs in the EHFV genome). Getting the right combination to confer INCREASED transmissibility while not otherwise harming lethality could occur - just as I could win Powerball Saturday night.

Don't mistake me - I would have closed the West African airports (including Bamako) 3 weeks ago. If we get into trouble quickly, Bamako will be the source. This is easily the worst public health crisis in any of our lifetimes.

But the idea of a random (and not useful) mutation turning the US into Sierra Leone is not on my top 100 concerns about this event.

42 posted on 08/29/2014 3:44:40 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies ]


To: Jim Noble
But the idea of a random (and not useful) mutation...

I don't think viruses make random mutations. They always seem to have a purpose.

55 posted on 08/29/2014 5:56:05 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson