Posted on 08/28/2014 7:42:34 AM PDT by GeronL
Ukraine Today:
A militant leader in Ukraine's eastern city of Donetsk has admitted that Russian soldiers are fighting among his forces in the insurgency. Alexander Zakharchenko, the prime minister of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, told Russian media that between 3,000 and 4,000 Russian soldiers on leave from their posts have been fighting in the insurgency.
That depends on the character of the newly emerged Putinist Russia. I think, they said goodbye to rational economic behavior long time ago and instead prefer territorial expansion at any cost. If Russia had been driven by this consideration they would have continued covert support to the insurgents and encouraged independent DNR/LNR. Instead they removed the charismatic rebel leaders such as Girkin and allowed the rebels to be nearly destroyed, before they intervened. That is classic Soviet maneuver: use local proletarian base to justify a military invasion, then get rid of leaders with independent streak and gain direct control. In a place like Angola the sovs had no alternative to setting up a satellite state, but since East Ukraine is contiguous, I think they decided on direct annexation.
Russian “Crystal Night” seems to be lurking...
Yes it is.
The Russians want compliant leaders. Annexation is always an option depending on how the West reacts. Moscow does not want the rebels to have an option of not being allied with Russia. And as you pointed out, they will destroy or allow the Ukies to destroy for them any one who shows the slightest sign of independence.
The video shows them using RPGs as improvised mortar rounds. I have never seen that before. I did read that GIs in Italy during WW2 used their .50 cal rounds as improvised mortars by shooting them upwards.
Ukraine could wind up split into three states.
1. The part that goes to Russia.
2. “East” Ukraine with Kiev as the capital, and not aligned with EU/NATO
3. “West” Ukraine with Lviv as the capital, as part of EU/NATO.
The invasion of Russia is ruthless.
and Crimea which seems to be changing its mind all the time
I’m afraid they’re stuck with Russia.
John Deere is laying off people.
Why? Commodity prices have tanked. Russia buys a lot of ag products.
That is just the start. Wait till you see farmers, packers, and mills shutting down because they got caught upside down on the futures markets.
Guerrilla war in eastern Ukraine is next but this start of WWIII.
I’d say on the Timeline it’s 1938.
Yes.
“The video shows them using RPGs as improvised mortar rounds.”
Note that they firing both HE and Anti-tank rounds with the RPG.
No, this is, I think, an outdated analysis. Following the Maidan Revolution, a unified Ukrainian nation was born. Even the East -- Donetsk and Luhansk and not at all pro-Russian, even though an insurgency could be sustained there with Russian aid. If Russia succeeds in lopping off Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, they will have to keep an occupational force there for a long time (probably manned by North Caucasus Muslims); the rest of Ukraine will remain unified and very anti-Russian.
WWIII is already underway, but because it is not likely to be similar to WWII with well-defined front lines, we don’t think of it as a global war.
Typical for the new warfare will be wide use of terror and guerrilla tactics. Civilian population will be used routinely as shields or as provocation fodder.
For example, the pro-Russian insurgents would deliberately set machine gun nests in apartment blocks, with the hapless residents still in them. That way if the regular army holds the fire trying to spare civilian lives, they get a military advantage, and if the regulars hit the building they get a propaganda advantage to elicit more Russian aid. When the Ukrainian army is not close enough for them to engage it they would deploy a squad of mortars, shell their own territory and quickly disappear, creating another story how the Ukies kill civilians.
The civilized nations will fight at a distance, with drones and from aircraft carriers, in order to shift the balance of power on the ground.
That is the face of the new war. We saw it in Chechnya, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya and Syria and now we see it in Ukraine.
From Twitter:
NATO ENVOYS TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING FRIDAY ON UKRAINE: AFP
The regular Russian Army is in Ukraine, they are not “pro-Russian” they ARE Russians.
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