Ukraine could wind up split into three states.
1. The part that goes to Russia.
2. “East” Ukraine with Kiev as the capital, and not aligned with EU/NATO
3. “West” Ukraine with Lviv as the capital, as part of EU/NATO.
and Crimea which seems to be changing its mind all the time
No, this is, I think, an outdated analysis. Following the Maidan Revolution, a unified Ukrainian nation was born. Even the East -- Donetsk and Luhansk and not at all pro-Russian, even though an insurgency could be sustained there with Russian aid. If Russia succeeds in lopping off Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, they will have to keep an occupational force there for a long time (probably manned by North Caucasus Muslims); the rest of Ukraine will remain unified and very anti-Russian.