Posted on 08/27/2014 7:38:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans have reason to hope for a wave election in 2014, with Barack Obama’s approval ratings sinking to a six-year floor and Democrats defending several red-state Senate seats. That wave hasn’t washed ashore in Kansas, which one would normally expect to be reliably Republican in the current environment. Republicans even have incumbents running for both the gubernatorial and Senate seats, which should make it an easy hold. According to a new Survey USA poll, though, it looks like both Republican incumbents are in trouble:
Despite primary wins 3 weeks ago for both top-ticket incumbent Kansas Republicans – Governor Sam Brownback and U.S. Senator Pat Roberts – and despite Kansas being a reliably Red State, both Brownback and Roberts face tough re-election fights for the 11/04/14 general election, according to the latest exclusive KSN-TV poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.
In the contest for Governor, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer continue to trail the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, consistent with 2 previous KSN polls conducted before the 08/05/14 primary. Today, it’s Davis 48%, Brownback 40%. Brownback holds 70% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 91% of the Democratic base. Independents break 4:3 Democratic, a troubling sign in a state such as Kansas, where Republicans often count on right-leaning independents to cushion their victory margins. More troubling, moderates break 7:2 against the incumbent, an unusually large margin in any state, in any contested race. Democrat Davis leads in all 3 regions of the state: by 10 points in greater Wichita, by 8 points in greater Kansas City KS, and by 4 points in Greater Topeka. Among men, where Red State Republican incumbents often lead by 10, 15 or 20 points, Brownback trails by 1. Brownback trails in every age group. SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, on 07/22/14, also showed Davis 8 atop Brownback. A 06/23/14 KSN poll showed Davis 6 atop Brownback.
Voters split on which issue is most important in the Governor’s contest: those who say “tax rates” are most important break by 26 points for Brownback. Those who say “education” is most important break by 43 points for Davis.
This doesn’t look like an outlier, either. The RCP poll average for this summer has Brownback down by almost 3 points, within the MOE, but that’s before the Survey USA poll gets added to the mix. Three of the four polls in the current average have Davis up by five or more points; the only reason that the RCP average is as close as it is comes from an outlier CBS/NYT/YouGov poll that put Brownback up 12, 52/40. Davis wins every age demo, every income demo, and has a ten-point lead among independents. An incumbent stuck at 40% in a three-way race is only a little bit less disastrous than being at 40% in a two-way race.
It’s only looking better in the Senate race because no one gets to 40% in a four-way race:
In the contest for United States Senator, Independent Greg Orman continues to make life difficult for both 3-term Republican Roberts and his Democratic challenger. Today, it’s Roberts 37%, Democrat Chad Taylor 32%, Orman at 20%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. These results are largely consistent with SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, conducted before the 08/05/14 primary, which also showed Roberts 5 points atop Taylor. In its 3 looks at the 11/04/14 general election, SurveyUSA had Orman at 7% on 06/14/14, at 14% on 07/22/14, and at 20% today. Orman siphons votes across the board. He gets 20% of conservatives, 24% of moderates and 17% of liberals. Roberts holds just 62% of the Republican base. Taylor holds 74% of the Democratic base. 38% of independents, a plurality, vote for Orman, who, among Independents beats both Roberts and Taylor. Some comfort for Roberts: he leads in all 3 regions of the state, though he has less than 40% support in every Kansas corner. Roberts breaks 40% among those with a high-school education, but fails to break 40% among the more educated. Roberts fails to break 40% among any income group.
The independent vote is handicapping Roberts in a big way. It’s difficult to see how Milton Wolf would have done appreciably worse in this case, and he might have held the Republican base together better. Roberts does lead the RCP average by eight points, and was up 43/39 in the PPP poll taken at mid-month, but that’s not a big advantage this far from the election for an incumbent. Bear in mind that the D/R/I in this poll is 32/46/18, so even with a 14-point advantage in the sample, neither Republican does particularly well.
The GOP may have a big night at the polls, but Kansas may turn into an unpleasant surprise — and it might cost them a Senate seat to Democrats they can’t afford to lose, if Orman continues to drag away Republicans from Roberts.
Not for me. Gaining a majority in the Senate is way, way, way more important than going to bed feeling good that you have "sent a message".
I think it is well known around here that there is nobody home to read that message. The GOP management is, no doubt, terrible. But they managed to provide Obamacare exactly ZERO votes. That's nothing to sneeze at. And they are better than the Dems by far.
It looks to me like you are wasting your time and your vote. If so, you have Harry Reid's blessing. Personally, that blessing would keep me awake at night.
And acts like DEM-Lite.
I now know far better than to place my hopes in the Gelded Outmoded Party.
A liberal republican controlled senate is a liberal controlled senate.
If you vote for a liberal republican, you ARE a liberal.
/johnny
Meaningless votes. They did provide Obamacare the critical cloture votes it needed to stay funded. McConnell and Cornyn were pretty pissed that Cruz was trying to block the vote that Harry Reid wanted. McConnell and Cornyn gave Reid the cloture votes he needed.
/johnny
Nope, no more battered wife syndrome for me.
Like I said I will not vote for someone who attacks the base. They do not represent what I stand for.
It is my belief that my money does not matter to the incumbents anyway as they are in bed with the crony capitalist. Therefore my only option is not to vote for the incumbent repub and hope he is thrown out so we can get a real conservative into office.
If I had someone that actually showed some leadership and stood for something that I do I might give them my vote. As it stands I see very few who do in either party.
Badgering me with the dems are worse is never going to make me vote for the lesser of two evils. You repub fools can talk till you are blue I will not waste my vote with a rino again. As of now I can accept the bad so that my kids will be done with weak kneed repubs who are just out for themselves so that my kids will not be debt slaves or regulation slaves.
The rinos best be worried because there are many many more like me around. We are pissed that we have been sold out time and time again. Not just on one issue but nearly all issues.
I don't care if they have one issue that we disagree on. I just want the majority of the issues to line up with my viewpoints. I am not a one issue voter.
The guy who needs the support of conservatives - the one having done the heavy-lifting of pursuing fiscally conservative policy, Brownback - will be put out to pasture? Great. And I can see the know nothings have commented already. Here’s what the know nothing’s missed: Brownback supported the 2007 Iraq War troop surge and has also voiced his support for Israel. He supports marriage as the union of a man and a woman. He has described himself as pro-life. As Governor, Brownback signed into law one of the largest income tax cuts in Kansas’ history, turned down a $31.5 million grant from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to set up an insurance exchange as part of the federal health care reform law and has signed a pro-life bill that blocked tax breaks for abortion providers, banned sex-selection abortions and declared that life begins at fertilization. On July 2014, Brownback faced a strong rebuke from members of his own party, with more than 100 Kansas Republican officials endorsing his Democratic opponent Davis. These Kansas Republicans said their concern was related to deep cuts in education and other government services as well as the tax cuts that have left the state with a major deficit. So why all the deeply condemnatory comments? Where is his conservative support?
>> But Brownback is different. He has rather courageously <<
I think you have it backwards. Roberts has one of the most reliably conservative records in the U.S. Senate and is a handful of few Senators who has stood with Ted Cruz when we need him. He is across the board conservative on every major issue.
Brownback, on the other hand, was pretty squishy and noticeably to Robert's left when the two served together to D.C. (despite portraying himself as the pro-life savior when he ran for President) and has really gone off the reservation on the "I gotta reward illegal aliens because Jesus and the Bible want me to" delusions.
Interesting enough, they BOTH voted the wrong way on the Selibus nomination, but Roberts was ranked over the coals for it while Brownback got a pass and his fan club made excuses for him ("he just did it to get her out of Kansas" "he HAD to vote for her because she was from his home state", etc.)
Giving 20X more focus to "taking out Roberts" in the primary instead of Brownback was a huge mistake, IMO.
There's something strange going on in Kansas, though. It's usually a safe GOP state, yet ALL the GOP incumbents are in dead heats for re-election during an election year that's leaning strongly GOP nationally.
The great “100 Republicans” are has been lefties who have been run out of the Kansas Republican party. Many are in nursing homes. They are not players, but they would love to see the lefties win back some semblance of power in Kansas politics.
My problem is that it looks to me at this point that the Dems are very likely to retain control of the Senate in 2015. This should be a wave election. But it is not looking like one right now. That is bad news no matter what you think. Some good people you support, some True Blue Tea Party candidates are going to lose in November because way too many conservative Republicans are sitting this one out - SO THEY CAN SEND A MESSAGE TO THE GOP.
Like I said, the GOP will not get the message. They have no interest in electing more Tea Party people. They prefer losing to growing the ranks of the Tea Party people in Congress. So the message will simply be ignored.
OTOH, if we can actually have a wave election we will sweep in at least a few more Tea Party types. Don't ask me who they. Ask Impy. He knows.
A number of people have decided to behave like those 19th Century religious societies that pledged themselves to a lifetime of celibacy in order to demonstrate the pureness of their thought and spirit. They didn’t last long.
Roberts really hasn’t been ‘reliably conservative’ in all areas - especially the debt ceiling. I thought long and hard about who to vote for in the primary...I liked Wolfe, but knew he would lose in the general. But in the end I decided to vote on principle, and voted for Wolfe.
I think Wolfe would not have praised and enabled Sebelius, and I think Wolfe would refuse to raise the debt ceiling.
But now I will vote for Roberts. His Dem challenger is my county DA, and I really don’t know much about his politics, other than he is pro 2nd amendment. I doubt there is much difference between the two, but when it comes to the ‘head count’ for the majority. Roberts is best.
On to Brownback - you have complaints about what he did in his last job...but little to say about his current job. Yes he is wrong on immigration. But frankly, as governor of a non-border state, he can’t do too much harm in that arena. But in other areas, he has acted as a junior Scott Walker - really busting teacher and government employee union tactics. Our Dept of Agriculture was becoming infested with liberals from Lawrence, KS (a very liberal place 25 minutes away from Topeka)....so Brownback closed their office in Topeka and moved it 60 miles west, to where the AG is actually occurring. The lib types have mostly quit, not wanting to commute, and he has essentially cleaned house on an entire agency, That’s just one example of how little by little, Brownback is pushing back the tide of creeping socialism in our state. I applaud him, and I hope he wins.
I hope you are right.
I don’t get it. A governor cuts taxes, lets the people keep more of their OWN money, tries to make his state more competitive and attract business. And now he is big trouble? Go figure.
What IS the matter with Kansas?
The GOPE should also get their overwhelming thanks, they are totally responsible for the disaster that is the Republican Party.
The democrats will win-—BOO!!! That bogey man won’t hunt anymore.
Socialist or socialist lite is not a choice. You want our votes give us a real choice, right now pissing on us and then telling us you want us is your game plan? Really? And you pay consultants for this strategy?
If you want liberal votes join the Dems. If you want conservative votes vote conservatively.
As for the leadership of the republican party that will be changed at the local level. Here locally we threw out 18 of the liberal Repub delegates and placed conservatives in their place. To say they were pissed is a understatement. Locally is where the leadership will be changed. That is where I am working to effect change in the Repub party. I have determined that the voting box has little effect.
People aren’t going to sit an election out. I will be voting for a conservative. Just not a republican.
The only message the liberal republicans need to get is that they will never win election again. I’m trying to destroy liberal republicans, I don’t care about sending them a message.
/johnny
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