Posted on 08/20/2014 12:54:39 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
Between 17 and 18 August 2014, a total of 221 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 106 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
(Excerpt) Read more at who.int ...
Have you seen the pics of West Point?
It would spread like wildfire. 10K survivors would be optimistic at that point.
I’ve seen pics. Only a couple of toilets there and open sewers everywhere with flooded streets.
If they do not go into West Point and extinguish it, it will spread by people fleeing across the river or sneaking/rioting past the guards on land. Then it will go everywhere in Monrovia.
How about we send the Ebola to the ISIS People? Lets see how they handle this crisis.
That's a ridiculous claim. No matter how dense the population, and how unsanitary the conditions, not every single person is going to be infected.
Have you ever been to an African slum?
Yes or no.
Very rarely does a level 4 pathogen get loose in a slum.
I grew up in an African megalopolis. There’s no way to avoid exposure if you live in West Point slum and this gets loose there. Communal water spigots, no sanitation to speak of. Frequent rains to spread it all around. Open shoes that walk through all manner of refuse. It will likely be brought to and fro by the children, they’re largely barefoot.
"Level 4" doesn't refer to the degree of morbidity (prevalence/incidence) in a population. It refers mainly to the high mortality (i.e. death rate in those infected) and the fact that no vaccine or treatment is available.
Ebola will soon make AIDS look like the common cold!
Which, in a slum, amounts to the same thing.
If this gets loose there it will be dreadful. If, to use your terribly optimistic number, only 70% of that 50K quarantined get it, that’s 35,000 cases. In such a communal living area with incredible population density there’s no way the other 30% will be able to avoid it. And of those (optimistic) 35,000 cases, 80% will die. That’s very nearly 30K dead. But hey, it’s not ‘50K’ so I guess to your estimation that’s ‘not so bad’.
It will literally be on every single surface not exposed to direct sunlight. And in a slum those are legion. Only one case per household will be necessary to infect the rest. But hey, if ‘only’ 35K get it with an 80% mortality...to an ‘optimist’, that’s better than 50K.
Sirleaf knows it’s there. It’s why they quarantined the whole place.
They know it’s there.
They know that only a few hundred cases have totally overwhelmed the ability to care for them.
They know there’s No Way they will be able to care for tens of thousands of cases, they barely have enough resources for a couple hundred.
They have walled them off to die.
And West Pointers know these things as well. Hence the riots.
During my high school summer I got a job on a cargo ship... got on in Philadelphia and sailed to Italy from there...went through the straight during a real big storm... that was fun. We stopped in Ceuta (Spanish Morocco) to refuel.
A friend had a herd of special cows. A virus got into the soil, air, feed, no one could tell. They did not raise one calf for 3 years. They would all die about a week after being born.
Then Mt. St. Helen's went off. They were just about next door to it. That a.m. they went out to find volcanic ash covering everything about 4 inches deep, even a newborn calf. All they could see was that the calf was alive as it kept blinking it's eyes. That was the first one that lived in 3 years and then all the rest lived too. Vets baffled.
BA
Thanks for the ping!
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Someone needs to recruit some jihadists from these countries to go and fight alongside ISIL.
When it starts to break out more in Nigeria, that is when it will get pretty hinkey around the world.
There are a lot of foreign nationals in Nigeria working on the oil systems there.
Those folks will get a whiff of Ebola and head on home. Oil prices will go up, and they will bring it back to whereever home is.
We are a long way from being done with this.
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