My guess is McConnell will win. He is now ahead in the polls.
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I know you said it’s a “guess” that McConnell will win, but here’s some food for thought: Are you taking into consideration what the Bevin voters might do? Are you taking into consideration how many true Conservatives and Tea Party folks in KY are fuming mad over McConnel’s “We will crush them” statement? Are you taking into consideration how many KY Conservatives are cussin’ mad over McConnell’s part in helping Thad Cochran steal the Mississippi Primary?
Just sayin’
Here is what I am taking into account in making my prediction:
1) McConnell is now ahead in the polls, including the one mentioned above.
2) Midterm elections generally favor the party out of power. Especially in the 6th year of an incumbent administration.
3) Incumbents usually win.
4) The Democrat Party, BHO, Harry Reid are VERY unpopular in KY.
5) Grimes is VERY liberal. Bill Clinton has been campaigning for her. They would bring in BHO if they could, but everyone knows that would not sell well in KY.
6) KY while traditionally a Democrat state has been trending strongly GOP in recent years.
Bevin supporters have no where else to go.
Not voting is a vote for Grimes.
Voting third party is a vote for Grimes.
Bevin voters will not want to reward BHO and Harry Reid by electing Grimes.
This isn’t rocket science, it’s Political Science 101.